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Can Sustained Product Demand Drive BDX Stock Before Q1 Earnings?

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Becton Dickinson and Company (BDX - Free Report) , popularly known as BD, is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Feb. 6, before market open.

See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $3.81 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1%. Over the trailing four quarters, its earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, delivering an earnings surprise of 6.5%, on average.

Let’s check out the factors that have shaped BDX’s performance prior to this announcement.

Factors to Note Before BDX Reports

BD Medical

On the fourth quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call in November 2024, management shared a few updates about the BD Medical segment. Per management, the company passed $1 billion of annual revenues in biologic drug delivery sales in fiscal 2024, driven by its pre-fillable devices and increased manufacturing capacity to serve growing GLP-1 demand. With a solid foothold in the biologics drug delivery space and a growing pipeline of targeted innovations (such as Libertas and Evolve wearable devices), management believes that BD is better positioned to capitalize on a significant growth opportunity.

Management also commented that BDX continued to advance its position in the United States during the fiscal fourth quarter, with broad volume growth and share gains, particularly in the hypodermic and vascular access management portfolios. Management believes that BD’s quality and agility to meet increased demand has positively benefited healthcare delivery across its markets. Pharmaceutical Systems’ fiscal fourth-quarter performance reflected continued strength in prefilled devices for biologic drugs, primarily GLP-1s.

During the last reported quarter, management continued to advance BD’s platform for pharmacy robotics. Management was also optimistic about the first year of Alaris’ return to market and its role in the company’s connected medication management strategy. BDX had exited fiscal 2024 at its historical revenue run rate and continued to see strong customer preference for the Alaris Power of One. The acquisition of Advanced Patient Monitoring (APM) in fiscal 2024 also expanded BD’s connected care solutions in a high-growth market and is likely to enable future innovation opportunities in breakthrough closed-loop monitoring and treatment. These look very promising for the stock.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the BD Medical segment’s revenues is currently pegged at $2.54 billion, up 14.1% year over year.

BD Interventional

On the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call, management stated that the BD Interventional segment’s strong organic growth was led by strength in Urology & Critical Care, with continued momentum in its PureWick franchise. PureWick Female witnessed robust growth, while PureWick Male delivered its strongest quarter since its launch in acute care. Management was also very pleased with the male direct-to-consumer launch, where the first few months of revenues exceeded its expectations. Surgery also recorded another quarter of above-market growth, while continued strong market adoption of Phasix hernia resorbable scaffold was recorded within advanced repair and reconstruction.

We expect the robust adoption of BD’s products to have continued in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by sustained demand, thereby significantly pushing up segmental revenues.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s revenues is currently pegged at $1.25 billion, up 4.8% year over year.

BDX’s Estimate Picture

For first-quarter fiscal 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.10 billion, implying an improvement of 8.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus estimate for EPS is pegged at $2.98, indicating an increase of 11.2% from the prior-year period’s reported number.

What Our Model Suggests

Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has higher chances of beating estimates. This is not the case here, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: BD has an Earnings ESP of -0.20%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Share Price Performance

Over the past three months, BD’s shares have gained 5.7%, underperforming the Medical - Dental Supplies’ 7.5% rise. BDX’s shares outperformed the Zacks Medical sector’s decrease of 3.1% but underperformed the S&P 500’s rise of 6.7%.

Three Months Price Comparison

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

BD’s Key Valuation Metric

From a valuation standpoint, BDX’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) is 16.7X, a discount to the industry's average of 17.8X. The company is also trading at a significant discount to other industry players like Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI - Free Report) , whose current P/E is 28.7X, The Cooper Companies, Inc. (COO - Free Report) , whose current P/E is 23.6X, and West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST - Free Report) , whose current P/E is 44.9X. This suggests that investors may be paying a lower price relative to the company's expected sales growth.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Long-Term Investment Visibility

For fiscal 2025, management is optimistic about witnessing increasing momentum from BD Excellence. This will likely drive significant margin expansion and enable the delivery of strong adjusted EPS growth.

Per management, BD has more than 25 planned new product launches in fiscal 2025. In BD Medical, the company will be launching its next-generation Pyxis platform, which includes the cadence of hardware and software upgrades and releases, which will begin to roll out by the end of calendar year 2025 and continue for the next several years. This is expected to be the first system to use BD's new advanced AI platform that will integrate data across BD smart devices. The company has a slew of new launches planned in its APM business to enhance hemodynamic monitoring.

BD’s next-gen HemoSphere Alta Monitor is expected to feature a full range of sensors enabled with predictive IQ algorithms that provide comprehensive pressure, flow and tissue oxygenation insights for varying acuities. New Swan IQ and ForeSight IQ smart sensors will likely provide new patient insights, including new-to-world right heart pressures and cerebral oxygenation.

In BD Life Sciences, the company plans to launch the first BD FACSDiscover Analyzer, the A8, to provide customers with high-throughput sample analysis using the same innovative technologies as its breakthrough Cell Sorter.

However, BD’s strong performance in the fiscal fourth quarter was partially offset by continued market dynamics in China and Bioscience-Pharma. The current unstable macroeconomic business environment, continued inflationary pressures, and labor dynamics are likely to have weighed on the company’s fiscal first-quarter revenues, raising our apprehension. Also, market dynamics across the industry, including expected customer inventory destocking, are likely to have continued to weigh on BD’s fiscal first-quarter performance.

Our Final Take

There is no denying that BD sits favorably in terms of core business strength, earnings prowess, robust financial footing and global opportunities. The stock’s strong core growth prospects are a good reason for existing investors to retain shares for potential future gains.

For those exploring to make new additions to their portfolios, the valuation indicates expectations of superior performance compared with its industry and sector peers. As it is still valued lower than the broader market, it suggests potential room for growth if it can align more closely with overall market performance. As the chances of beating estimates are unlikely, it would be unwise to add the stock to one’s portfolio before the earnings. However, if investors are already holding the stock, it would be prudent to hold on to it at present. The favorable Zacks Style Score with a Growth Score of B suggests continued uptrend potential for BDX.


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