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LLY's Q4 Earnings Beat, Mounjaro, Zepbound Sales Fall Shy of Estimates
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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share (“EPS”) of $5.32, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.03 per share. Earnings rose 114% year over year.
Adjusted earnings included an acquired in-process research and development (IPR&D) charge of 19 cents per share.
Revenues of $13.53 billion rose 45% year over year and came in line with the preliminary figure issued by Lilly in mid-January. Total revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.47 billion.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Revenues in the quarter benefited from a one-time payment of $300 million from partner Boehringer Ingelheim due to an amendment in their collaboration for Jardiance.
Higher volumes of drugs like Mounjaro, Zepbound, Verzenio, Jardiance and Taltz were partially offset by lower sales of Trulicity. Lilly’s new products also contributed to sales growth.
Sales of key growth products (select products launched prior to 2022 like Cyramza, Emgality, Jardiance, Olumiant, Retevmo, Taltz, Trulicity, Tyvyt and Verzenio) rose 13% to $5.95 billion. Eli Lilly’s new products (products launched since 2022 like Ebglyss, Jaypirca, Mounjaro, Kisunla, Omvoh and Zepbound) contributed $5.64 billion to revenues, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound.
In the reported quarter, net realized prices declined 4%, while volumes rose 48%.
While U.S. revenues rose 40% to $9.03 billion, ex-U.S. revenues rose 55% to $4.50 billion.
LLY’s Mounjaro and Zepbound Sales Miss
Lilly’s most popular products are its tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Mounjaro recorded sales of $3.53 billion during the quarter, up 60% year over year. The reported sales figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.88 billion as well as our model estimate of $3.65 billion. The number was, however, in line with Lilly’s estimate of approximately $3.5 billion provided in mid-January.
Mounjaro sales benefited from increased demand and improved supply in the United States, partially offset by lower pricing. International sales benefited from volume growth.
Zepbound recorded sales of $1.91 billion in the quarter compared with $1.26 billion in the previous quarter. Zepbound revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.04 billion as well as our model estimate of $2.0 billion. Zepbound sales were also in line with Lilly’s preliminary estimate.
Though Mounjaro and Zepbound's sales increased significantly year over year due to volume growth, their sales in the second half were below expectations. Lilly believes that slower-than-expected growth and unfavorable channel dynamics hurt sales in the second half of 2024.
Both Mounjaro and Zepbound include the same compound tirzepatide, a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist (GIP/GLP-1 RA). The GLP-1 segment is an important class of drugs for multiple cardiometabolic diseases and is gaining significant popularity.
Lilly’s tirzepatide medicines face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) GLP-drug semaglutide. Semaglutide is approved as Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes and as Wegovy injection for weight management.
On Wednesday, Novo Nordisk reported its fourth-quarter results. Novo Nordisk beat estimates for both earnings and sales. Revenues rose 30% at a constant exchange rate (CER), driven mainly by strong sales of its GLP-1 products. Ozempic rose 12%, while Wegovy rose 107% at CER. In 2025, Novo Nordisk expects sales to rise 16-24% at CER, while operating profit is expected to increase 19-27% at CER
LLY’s Key Drugs’ Sales Numbers
Among the growth products, Trulicity generated revenues worth $1.25 billion, down 25% year over year. Sales declined 36% in the United States due to decreased volumes, primarily due to competitive dynamics and lower prices. Sales rose 9% in international markets due to higher volume and pricing. Sales of Trulicity missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35 billion and our model estimate of $1.45 billion.
Jardiance sales rose 50% to $1.2 billion, including the one-time payment received from partner Boehringer Ingelheim. Jardiance’s U.S. revenues declined 1% as lower pricing offset the benefit of increased demand. Jardiance beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $875.0 million as well as our model estimate of $887.3 million.
Taltz brought in sales of $952.0 million, up 21% year over year, driven by higher pricing and increased demand both in the United States and outside. Taltz beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $943 million as well as our model estimate of $947.9 million.
Verzenio generated sales of $1.56 billion in the reported quarter, up 36% year over year, on increased demand and favorable wholesaler buying patterns in the United States. Verzenio sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52 billion but slightly missed our model estimate of $1.57 billion.
Emgality generated revenues of $249.8 million in the quarter, up 34% year over year. Olumiant (baricitinib) generated sales of $261.6 million, up 7% on a year-over-year basis.
New drug Jaypirca recorded $113.6 million in sales compared with $81.1 million in the previous quarter. New drugs Omvoh and Ebglyss recorded sales of $20.4 million and $56.9 million, respectively, in the quarter, compared with of $40.5 million and $14.9 million, respectively, in the previous quarter.
Last year in July, Lilly won a long-awaited FDA approval for Kisunla (donanemab) for treating early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. Kisunla was approved in Japan in September 2024 and in China in December 2024. Kisunla is the second drug on the market to treat Alzheimer's disease after Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) and its Japan-based partner Eisai’s Leqembi. Kisunla sales were $7.9 million in the fourth quarter compared with $1.4 million in the previous quarter.
LLY's 2024 Results
Full-year 2024 sales rose 32% to $45.04 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $45.22 billion. Sales came in slightly higher than the guided number of approximately $45.0 billion, which Lilly provided in mid-January. Lilly’s original guided range for 2024 revenues was $45.4 billion to $46.0 billion.
Adjusted earnings for 2024 were $12.99 per share, up 105.5% year over year. Earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.81 per share. Earnings, however, fell short of the guided range of $13.02 to $13.52 per share.
LLY's 2025 Guidance
Last month, Lilly provided its sales outlook for 2025, which it maintained along with the fourth-quarter results.
In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 32%.
Earnings per share are expected in the range of $22.50 to $24.00. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $23.79 per share.
Our Take on LLY’s Q4 Results
Lilly’s fourth-quarter results were rather uneventful, with the company already announcing preliminary sales numbers and 2025 sales outlook last month. The company beat estimates for earnings as well as sales. Sales of Lilly’s incretin medicines, Mounjaro, Trulicity and Zepbound missed estimates while that of non-incretin drugs like Jardiance, Taltz and Verzenio beat expectations. Lilly’s non-incretin revenues grew 20% year over year in the fourth quarter. Lilly’s 2025 outlook looks decent.
Shares were down around 1% in pre-market trading. Lilly’s stock has risen 19.4% in the past year against a decrease of 3.5% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lilly’s tremendous success with Mounjaro and Zepbound made it the biggest drugmaker in the world, with a market cap of around $800 million.
However, slower-than-expected growth hurt sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound in the second half, raising concerns about moderating demand for these drugs.
However, the company is hopeful that sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound should pick up in 2025 as it launches the drugs in new international markets and ramps up manufacturing in the first half of the year. Lilly expects to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024. Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher. In late December, the FDA approved Zepbound for its second indication, moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults with obesity.
In addition, Lilly expects its new drugs, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla to contribute to sales growth in 2025. It also expects the potential launch of new medicines like imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer to contribute to growth in 2025.
Estimates for Alnylam’s 2025 bottom line have improved from a loss of 13 cents to earnings of 41 cents per share over the past 60 days. In the past year, Alnylam’s stock has risen 60.4%.
Alnylam beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while matching the same once, delivering a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 65.67%.
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LLY's Q4 Earnings Beat, Mounjaro, Zepbound Sales Fall Shy of Estimates
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share (“EPS”) of $5.32, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.03 per share. Earnings rose 114% year over year.
Adjusted earnings included an acquired in-process research and development (IPR&D) charge of 19 cents per share.
Revenues of $13.53 billion rose 45% year over year and came in line with the preliminary figure issued by Lilly in mid-January. Total revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.47 billion.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Revenues in the quarter benefited from a one-time payment of $300 million from partner Boehringer Ingelheim due to an amendment in their collaboration for Jardiance.
Higher volumes of drugs like Mounjaro, Zepbound, Verzenio, Jardiance and Taltz were partially offset by lower sales of Trulicity. Lilly’s new products also contributed to sales growth.
Sales of key growth products (select products launched prior to 2022 like Cyramza, Emgality, Jardiance, Olumiant, Retevmo, Taltz, Trulicity, Tyvyt and Verzenio) rose 13% to $5.95 billion. Eli Lilly’s new products (products launched since 2022 like Ebglyss, Jaypirca, Mounjaro, Kisunla, Omvoh and Zepbound) contributed $5.64 billion to revenues, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound.
In the reported quarter, net realized prices declined 4%, while volumes rose 48%.
While U.S. revenues rose 40% to $9.03 billion, ex-U.S. revenues rose 55% to $4.50 billion.
LLY’s Mounjaro and Zepbound Sales Miss
Lilly’s most popular products are its tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Mounjaro recorded sales of $3.53 billion during the quarter, up 60% year over year. The reported sales figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.88 billion as well as our model estimate of $3.65 billion. The number was, however, in line with Lilly’s estimate of approximately $3.5 billion provided in mid-January.
Mounjaro sales benefited from increased demand and improved supply in the United States, partially offset by lower pricing. International sales benefited from volume growth.
Zepbound recorded sales of $1.91 billion in the quarter compared with $1.26 billion in the previous quarter. Zepbound revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.04 billion as well as our model estimate of $2.0 billion. Zepbound sales were also in line with Lilly’s preliminary estimate.
Though Mounjaro and Zepbound's sales increased significantly year over year due to volume growth, their sales in the second half were below expectations. Lilly believes that slower-than-expected growth and unfavorable channel dynamics hurt sales in the second half of 2024.
Both Mounjaro and Zepbound include the same compound tirzepatide, a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist (GIP/GLP-1 RA). The GLP-1 segment is an important class of drugs for multiple cardiometabolic diseases and is gaining significant popularity.
Lilly’s tirzepatide medicines face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) GLP-drug semaglutide. Semaglutide is approved as Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes and as Wegovy injection for weight management.
On Wednesday, Novo Nordisk reported its fourth-quarter results. Novo Nordisk beat estimates for both earnings and sales. Revenues rose 30% at a constant exchange rate (CER), driven mainly by strong sales of its GLP-1 products. Ozempic rose 12%, while Wegovy rose 107% at CER. In 2025, Novo Nordisk expects sales to rise 16-24% at CER, while operating profit is expected to increase 19-27% at CER
LLY’s Key Drugs’ Sales Numbers
Among the growth products, Trulicity generated revenues worth $1.25 billion, down 25% year over year. Sales declined 36% in the United States due to decreased volumes, primarily due to competitive dynamics and lower prices. Sales rose 9% in international markets due to higher volume and pricing. Sales of Trulicity missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35 billion and our model estimate of $1.45 billion.
Jardiance sales rose 50% to $1.2 billion, including the one-time payment received from partner Boehringer Ingelheim. Jardiance’s U.S. revenues declined 1% as lower pricing offset the benefit of increased demand. Jardiance beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $875.0 million as well as our model estimate of $887.3 million.
Taltz brought in sales of $952.0 million, up 21% year over year, driven by higher pricing and increased demand both in the United States and outside. Taltz beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $943 million as well as our model estimate of $947.9 million.
Verzenio generated sales of $1.56 billion in the reported quarter, up 36% year over year, on increased demand and favorable wholesaler buying patterns in the United States. Verzenio sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52 billion but slightly missed our model estimate of $1.57 billion.
Emgality generated revenues of $249.8 million in the quarter, up 34% year over year. Olumiant (baricitinib) generated sales of $261.6 million, up 7% on a year-over-year basis.
New drug Jaypirca recorded $113.6 million in sales compared with $81.1 million in the previous quarter. New drugs Omvoh and Ebglyss recorded sales of $20.4 million and $56.9 million, respectively, in the quarter, compared with of $40.5 million and $14.9 million, respectively, in the previous quarter.
Last year in July, Lilly won a long-awaited FDA approval for Kisunla (donanemab) for treating early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. Kisunla was approved in Japan in September 2024 and in China in December 2024. Kisunla is the second drug on the market to treat Alzheimer's disease after Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) and its Japan-based partner Eisai’s Leqembi. Kisunla sales were $7.9 million in the fourth quarter compared with $1.4 million in the previous quarter.
LLY's 2024 Results
Full-year 2024 sales rose 32% to $45.04 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $45.22 billion. Sales came in slightly higher than the guided number of approximately $45.0 billion, which Lilly provided in mid-January. Lilly’s original guided range for 2024 revenues was $45.4 billion to $46.0 billion.
Adjusted earnings for 2024 were $12.99 per share, up 105.5% year over year. Earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.81 per share. Earnings, however, fell short of the guided range of $13.02 to $13.52 per share.
LLY's 2025 Guidance
Last month, Lilly provided its sales outlook for 2025, which it maintained along with the fourth-quarter results.
In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 32%.
Earnings per share are expected in the range of $22.50 to $24.00. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $23.79 per share.
Our Take on LLY’s Q4 Results
Lilly’s fourth-quarter results were rather uneventful, with the company already announcing preliminary sales numbers and 2025 sales outlook last month. The company beat estimates for earnings as well as sales. Sales of Lilly’s incretin medicines, Mounjaro, Trulicity and Zepbound missed estimates while that of non-incretin drugs like Jardiance, Taltz and Verzenio beat expectations. Lilly’s non-incretin revenues grew 20% year over year in the fourth quarter. Lilly’s 2025 outlook looks decent.
Shares were down around 1% in pre-market trading. Lilly’s stock has risen 19.4% in the past year against a decrease of 3.5% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lilly’s tremendous success with Mounjaro and Zepbound made it the biggest drugmaker in the world, with a market cap of around $800 million.
However, slower-than-expected growth hurt sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound in the second half, raising concerns about moderating demand for these drugs.
However, the company is hopeful that sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound should pick up in 2025 as it launches the drugs in new international markets and ramps up manufacturing in the first half of the year. Lilly expects to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024. Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher. In late December, the FDA approved Zepbound for its second indication, moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults with obesity.
In addition, Lilly expects its new drugs, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla to contribute to sales growth in 2025. It also expects the potential launch of new medicines like imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer to contribute to growth in 2025.
LLY’s Zacks Rank & Stock to Consider
Eli Lilly currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). A better-ranked stock is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY - Free Report) , with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks (Strong Buy) here.
Eli Lilly and Company Price and Consensus
Eli Lilly and Company price-consensus-chart | Eli Lilly and Company Quote
Estimates for Alnylam’s 2025 bottom line have improved from a loss of 13 cents to earnings of 41 cents per share over the past 60 days. In the past year, Alnylam’s stock has risen 60.4%.
Alnylam beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while matching the same once, delivering a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 65.67%.