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Will Segmental Sales Boost Kratos Defense Stock in Q4 Earnings?

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Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 26, after market close.  

See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.  

The company delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 70.63%. The strong revenue performance across both its business segments is likely to add an impetus to its overall fourth-quarter results amid the effects of higher personnel-related costs.

KTOS’ Unmanned Systems Unit to Post Solid Sales

Solid revenue growth from increased international target drone production activity must have bolstered the top line of the Unmanned Systems business segment.

Also, contributions from the STS acquisition are likely to have favorably contributed to this unit’s quarterly revenue performance. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $66.5 million, indicating a 20.1% increase from the top line reported a year ago.

KTOS’ Government Unit Also Holds Potential

Solid revenue growth from the company’s C5ISR and microwave electronics products businesses, primarily resulting from increased activity for multiple air defense systems and programs, must have bolstered the top line of the Government business segment.

However, lower revenues can be expected from this unit’s Space and Satellite business, primarily due to industry-related Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) delays in the manufacturing and delivery of software-defined satellites. This might have adversely impacted the deployment of KTOS’ satellite ground equipment, thereby affecting the overall top-line performance of the Government business segment. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Government segment’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $223.4 million, indicating a 2.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Q4 Expectations for KTOS

With both Kratos Defense segments expected to report solid top-line improvement, the overall revenue growth prospects of the company remain bright. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GD’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $288.3 million, which suggests a 5.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s level.

Such a solid top-line projection is likely to have aided KTOS’ fourth-quarter bottom line. However, higher bid and proposal costs as well as increased personnel-related costs might have put a downward pressure on its operating margin, thereby adversely impacting its overall earnings.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 9 cents per share, which indicates a decline of 25% from the prior-year reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for KTOS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Kratos Defense this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: KTOS has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, Kratos Defense carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Below, we have mentioned a few players from the same sector that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Archer Aviation (ACHR - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 27, after market close. It has an Earnings ESP of +9.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ACHR’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at a loss of 24 cents per share, while that for sales is pinned at $0.50 million. The stock boasts a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 6.89%.

FTAI Aviation (FTAI - Free Report) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 26, after market close. It has an Earnings ESP of +8.16% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FTAI’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 83 cents per share, while that for sales is pinned at $481.4 million. The stock boasts a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 30.65%.

Heico Corp. (HEI - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Feb. 26, after market close. It has an Earnings ESP of +6.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HEI’s fiscal first-quarter earnings is pegged at 93 cents per share, while that for sales is pinned at $970.8 million. The stock boasts a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.75%.


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