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Why Is Selective Insurance (SIGI) Up 2.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Selective Insurance (SIGI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 2.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Selective Insurance due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Selective Insurance Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates on Poor Underwriting

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2024 operating income of $1.62 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 18.1%. The bottom line decreased 16% from the year-ago quarter. The quarterly results reflected average renewal pure price increases and stable retention across Standard Commercial Lines and Excess & Surplus Lines.

Behind the Headlines 

Total revenues of $1.3 billion increased 14.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure, primarily due to higher premiums earned, net investment income and other income. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1%. On a year-over-year basis, net premiums written (NPW) rose 10% to $1.1 billion, driven by renewal pure price increases of 10.7%. The figure matched our estimate. Average renewal pure price increased 10.7%, up 3.3 points from a year ago. After-tax net investment income grew 24% year over year to $97 million.

After-tax net underwriting income was $13.3 million, which decreased 73.5% year over year. Catastrophe events were favorable $10.1 million against the year-ago period’s loss of $24.6 million. Non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses were $178.2 million, wider than the year-ago loss of $172.1 million. The combined ratio of 98.5% deteriorated 480 basis points (bps) year over year, while the loss and loss expense ratio deteriorated 540 bps year over year to 67.8%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was 97.1% and our estimate was 96%. Total expenses increased 19.2% year over year to $1.1 billion, primarily due to higher loss and loss expenses incurred, other insurance expenses, amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs and corporate expenses. The figure matched our estimate.

Segmental Results

Standard Commercial Lines’ NPW was up 9% year over year to $833.4 million. The premium growth reflected average renewal pure price increases of 8.8% and stable retention of 85%. The figure was lower than our estimate of $868.1 million. The combined ratio deteriorated 710 bps to 100.2%. This was driven by net unfavorable prior-year casualty reserve development of $75 million. It was partially offset by lower catastrophe and non-catastrophe losses. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was 96 and our estimate was 97.3.

Standard Personal Lines’ NPW decreased 3% year over year to $103.6 million, with a renewal pure price of 27.3% and higher average policy sizes. Retention was 75%, down 12 points from a year ago, and new business decreased 49% due to deliberate profit improvement actions. The figure was lower than our estimate of $132 million. The combined ratio improved 2,520 bps on a year-over-year basis to 91.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 102, while our estimate was 108.4.

Excess & Surplus Lines’ NPW was up 27% year over year to $152.6 million, driven by new business growth of 29% and average renewal pure price increases of 8.2%. The figure was higher than our estimate of $150.4 million. The combined ratio deteriorated 1,690 bps to 93.1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 85, while our estimate was 84.3.

Full-Year Highlights

Operating earnings of $3.27 per share decreased 44% year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10%. NPW was a record $4.6 billion, up 12% year over year. Underwriting loss was $104.7 million against the year-ago period’s income of $104.9 million. The combined ratio deteriorated 650 bps to 103%. The loss and loss expense ratio deteriorated 740 basis points to 72.3%.

Financial Update

Selective Insurance exited 2024 with total assets of $13.5 billion, which was 15% above the level at the end of December 2023. Long-term debt of $507.9 million increased 1% from the 2023 level. Debt-to-total capitalization improved 60 bps to 14% from the level as of 2023-end. As of Dec. 31, 2024, book value per share was $47.99, up 6% year over year. Operating return on common equity of 13.5% contracted 470 basis points year over year.

Share Repurchase and Dividend Update

During 2024, SIGI repurchased shares for $8.7 million. SIGI had $75.5 million remaining under authorization as of Dec. 31, 2024. The board of directors authorized a quarterly cash dividend of 38 cents per share. The dividend will be paid out on March 3 to shareholders of record at the close of business on Feb. 14, 2025. 

2025 Guidance

SIGI estimates a GAAP combined ratio of 96% to 97%, including net catastrophe losses of 6 points. The combined ratio estimate assumes no prior-year casualty reserve development.  Selective Insurance estimates an after-tax net investment income of $405 million. The company expects an overall effective tax rate of 21.5% as well as weighted average shares of 61.5 million on a fully diluted basis.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Selective Insurance has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Selective Insurance has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Selective Insurance belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry. Another stock from the same industry, Travelers (TRV - Free Report) , has gained 2.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2024.

Travelers reported revenues of $12.06 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +10.3%. EPS of $9.15 for the same period compares with $7.01 a year ago.

Travelers is expected to post earnings of $0.56 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -88.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -86.7%.

Travelers has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.


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