It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Norfolk Southern (NSC Quick QuoteNSC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Norfolk Southern due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Earnings Beat at Norfolk Southern in Q4

NSC's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of $3.04 per share (excluding 19 cents from non-recurring items) beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.95 and increased 7.4% year over year, owing to lower costs.

Railway operating revenues were $3.02 billion in the quarter under review, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.03 billion. The top line decreased 2% year over year due to weakness across all segments.

Overall volumes increased 3% year over year. Total revenue per unit dipped 4% year over year. Income from railway operations rose 40% year over year to $1.13 billion.

Railway operating expenses declined 16% on a year-over-year basis to $1.89 billion, primarily due to a double-digit decrease in fuel expenses.

NSC’s president and chief executive officer, Mark George, stated, “We closed 2024 with another quarter of solid performance, building on the success of Q3. Our network is running fast; our terminals are more efficient; and service metrics are steady. Our customers are noticing and rewarding us with more business.”

Merchandise revenues fell 0.4% year over year to $1.84 billion. Actual segmental revenues were lower than our estimate of $1.85 billion. Revenue per unit decreased 1% year over year.

Revenues from Intermodal fell 0.3% year over year to $792 million. Actual segmental revenues were higher than our projection of $775.6 million. While segmental volumes increased 5%, revenue per unit tumbled 5% year over year.

Coal revenues were $390 million, down 9% year over year. Actual segmental revenues lagged our projection of $416.4 million. Coal volumes fell 1% year over year. Revenue per unit declined 9% in the reported quarter.

Liquidity & Buyback

Norfolk Southern exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.64 billion compared with $975 million at the end of the prior quarter. NSC had a long-term debt of $16.6 billion at the fourth-quarter end, almost flat year over year.

The company did not repurchase any shares under its stock repurchase program in 2024.

2025 Guidance

For 2025, NSC expects revenue growth of 3%. Capital expenditure is expected to be around $2.20 billion in 2025. NSC plans to initiate share repurchases beginning in the first quarter of 2025.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Norfolk Southern has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Norfolk Southern has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.