Monday, December 19, 2016
You’ll notice trading volumes slowing down from now through the beginning of the new year. In between quarterly earnings seasons and the next week following a Fed interest market rate hike — with also very little on the macro economic docket today, aside from a speaking appearance by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 1:30 ET this afternoon — to say nothing of winter holiday vacations ensuing among professional traders, we don’t really expect much of a bid in either direction as of now.
Does this mean the Dow will finally reach 20,000 sometime this week? How important is it if it does? Aside from being a big, round, pleasing number, there’s really nothing announcing it’s pending arrival is an absolute certainty. Then again, there seems to be little in the way of analysis curbing the upward trajectory of the Trump Rally unless something new enters the picture.
Yellen will likely discuss the general outlook of the FOMC for 2017 and beyond. How many rate hikes can we expect in the next 12 months? According to Zacks Chief Strategist John Blank we’re looking at a minimum of three and a maximum of six, depending on how much growth and subsequent market gains occur as the transition from the Obama to Trump presidencies takes place.
This Thursday, in addition to weekly initial jobless claims and a slew of other industry-specific data like housing price index and Kansas City Manufacturing, is the third and final Q3 GDP result, expected to gain a tenth to 3.3% for the quarter. Perhaps a surprise in one direction or another on this metric will convince the market to tilt heavier one way or the other.
…But nah — who’re we kidding? We’ve entered the deep freeze of market activity, at least until portfolio managers try to clear their books of stock losers in order to write them off taxes next year. We’re also still a month away from the beginning of the new administration taking over, and to go back to the Dow for a moment, should we hit 20K sometime this week, it will be the fastest rise from one 1000-point milestone to another in that index’s history. Meaning Trump’s success is already at least somewhat priced in.
Mark Vickery
Senior Editor
Click here to follow this author>>
Image: Bigstock
The Deep Freeze of Market Activity
Monday, December 19, 2016
You’ll notice trading volumes slowing down from now through the beginning of the new year. In between quarterly earnings seasons and the next week following a Fed interest market rate hike — with also very little on the macro economic docket today, aside from a speaking appearance by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 1:30 ET this afternoon — to say nothing of winter holiday vacations ensuing among professional traders, we don’t really expect much of a bid in either direction as of now.
Does this mean the Dow will finally reach 20,000 sometime this week? How important is it if it does? Aside from being a big, round, pleasing number, there’s really nothing announcing it’s pending arrival is an absolute certainty. Then again, there seems to be little in the way of analysis curbing the upward trajectory of the Trump Rally unless something new enters the picture.
Yellen will likely discuss the general outlook of the FOMC for 2017 and beyond. How many rate hikes can we expect in the next 12 months? According to Zacks Chief Strategist John Blank we’re looking at a minimum of three and a maximum of six, depending on how much growth and subsequent market gains occur as the transition from the Obama to Trump presidencies takes place.
This Thursday, in addition to weekly initial jobless claims and a slew of other industry-specific data like housing price index and Kansas City Manufacturing, is the third and final Q3 GDP result, expected to gain a tenth to 3.3% for the quarter. Perhaps a surprise in one direction or another on this metric will convince the market to tilt heavier one way or the other.
…But nah — who’re we kidding? We’ve entered the deep freeze of market activity, at least until portfolio managers try to clear their books of stock losers in order to write them off taxes next year. We’re also still a month away from the beginning of the new administration taking over, and to go back to the Dow for a moment, should we hit 20K sometime this week, it will be the fastest rise from one 1000-point milestone to another in that index’s history. Meaning Trump’s success is already at least somewhat priced in.
Mark Vickery
Senior Editor
Click here to follow this author>>