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Should You Buy, Hold or Sell OKLO Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?

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Oklo, Inc. (OKLO - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on March 24, after market close.     

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of 8 cents per share, suggesting a slight improvement from a loss of 9 cents reported in the prior-year quarter. The bottom-line estimate has remained unchanged in the past 60 days

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

OKLO’s earnings came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last reported quarter.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings Whisper for OKLO Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for OKLO this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

OKLO has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

OKLO’s Q4 Results: Key Factors to Consider

During the October-December 2024 quarter, Oklo signed some landmark agreements and achieved some milestones, which should get reflected in its upcoming results. 

In December, the company signed a Master Power Agreement with Switch, a premier provider of AI, cloud and enterprise data centers, to deploy 12 gigawatts (GW) of Oklo Aurora powerhouse projects through 2044. This marked one of the largest corporate clean power agreements ever signed. 

In November, Oklo revealed that it is collaborating with two major data center providers to deliver up to 750 megawatts (MW) of low carbon power for data centers across the United States. These commitments expanded Oklo’s customer pipeline to approximately 2,100 MW. 

In the same month, the company revealed that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have completed the environmental compliance process, addressing the DOE requirements for site characterization at Oklo’s first commercial advanced fission power plant site at INL. This marked a significant milestone in Oklo’s attempt to deliver the first commercial advanced fission power plant in the United States. 

Oklo also signed a letter of intent to acquire Atomic Alchemy Inc., a U.S.-based company specializing in the production of radioisotopes in the month of November. This buyout should accelerate fuel production for Oklo’s powerhouses. 

In October, Oklo announced that the DOE has approved the Conceptual Safety Design Report (CSDR) for the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility at INL. This approval was a key milestone in Oklo’s progress toward its goal of utilizing recovered nuclear material to fuel its first commercial Aurora powerhouse.

With the nuclear fuel sector receiving significant funding in recent times, the aforementioned achievements are likely to have benefited Oklo. Further updates are expected along with the  fourth-quarter results. 

On the cost front, the company is expected to have incurred higher operating expenses in the fourth quarter compared with the prior year quarter, given its significant investments in developing its next-generation fast fission power plants called “powerhouses.” Since the company is yet to generate revenues, such operating expenses will continue to put downward pressure on its bottom line, thereby resulting in quarterly losses.

Price Performance & Valuation

Shares of Oklo have surged an impressive 157.2% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Alternative-Energy industry’s return of 0.7% as well as the broader Zacks Oils-Energy sector’s growth of 48.2%. It has also outpaced the S&P 500’s surge of 8.7% in the same period.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

A similar stellar performance has been delivered by other industry players, such as Bloom Energy (BE - Free Report) , GEV Vernova (GEV - Free Report) and Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG - Free Report) , whose shares have surged 157.5%, 140.6% and 23.2%, respectively, over the past year.

As one can see below, OKLO’s trailing 12-month Price/Book (P/B) ratio is more than that of its industry. This suggests that investors anticipate the company will generate more profits from its assets compared to that for its industry.  

OKLO’s Price/Book TTM

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Investment Thesis

The rapid expansion of data centers worldwide, coupled with rising electricity consumption —particularly in emerging economies driven by economic growth — has been fueling global electricity demand. To this end, it is imperative to mention that the United States remains the largest producer of nuclear power, contributing nearly 30% to global nuclear electricity generation, according to the World Nuclear Association.

Against this backdrop, Oklo is pioneering next-generation fast-fission power plants, known as “powerhouses.” Its Aurora powerhouse line is designed to generate 15-50 megawatts electric (MWe) from recycled and fresh nuclear fuel, with the potential to scale up to 100 MWe. This positions Oklo for long-term growth in the nuclear power sector.

However, the company is yet to generate revenues, with its first Aurora powerhouse expected to be deployed in 2027. This suggests limited top-line performance in the near term. 

Should You Buy OKLO Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?

Considering OKLO’s favorable Zacks Rank, solid share price performance and higher P/B, investors interested in this stock may buy it before next Monday.   


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