M&T Bank Corporation (MTB Quick QuoteMTB - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 14, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have registered year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.

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In the last reported quarter, M&T Bank’s results benefited from a rise in loans and leases, non-interest income, and net interest income (NII). However, a fall in deposit balance was a headwind.

Quarterly earnings surpassed the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average negative earnings surprise of 6.57%.

M&T Bank Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

M&T Bank Corporation price-eps-surprise | M&T Bank Corporation Quote

Let us discuss the factors that are likely to have impacted the company’s first-quarter performance.

Factors to Influence M&T Bank’s Q1 Results

Loans & NII: An uncertain macroeconomic backdrop because of Trump’s tariff plans is likely to have led to a decent lending scenario. Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial, real estate and consumer loans was modest in the first two months of the quarter.

However, MTB's management expects first-quarter 2025 average loans to decline due to a decrease in CRE loans. The decline in loans is likely to have affected average interest-earning assets growth in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $191.6 billion, indicating a 0.8% decrease from the prior-quarter reported figure. Our model estimate is pegged at $194 billion.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% in the first quarter. As such, MTB’s NII is likely to have not improved significantly.

Management projects a slightly lower NII for the first quarter of 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) is pegged at 1.71 billion, indicating a 0.9% decrease from the prior quarter’s reported number. We estimate NII to be $1.73 billion.

Fee Income: Management expects to register a lower average total deposit in the first quarter of 2025 due to seasonal flows and the continued reduction of non-customer deposits. This is likely to have affected revenues from service charges on deposit accounts to some extent. The consensus estimate for the metric is pegged at $131.9 million, indicating a marginal rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the metric is at $128 million.

Despite interest rate cuts by the central bank in 2024, mortgage rates did not come down significantly. The rates hovered near 6.5% in the first quarter of 2025. As such, refinancing activities and origination volume did not witness significant improvement. This might have limited the company’s mortgage banking revenue growth in the quarter to be reported.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking is pegged at $113.6 million, indicating a 2.9% decline from the prior quarter’s reported level. We expect the metric to be $109 million.

The consensus estimate for brokerage services income of $28.4 million indicates a decline of 5.3% from that reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. We expect the metric to be $30.3 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust income of $177.2 million indicates a decrease of 1.3% sequentially. Our model predicts the metric to be $169 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $627.9 million, indicating a 4.5% decline from the prior-quarter’s actual. Our model projects the metric to be $606.2 million.

Expenses: The company's expenses are likely to have risen due to investment in strengthening franchises and seasonal compensation. Management expects the first-quarter results to reflect $110 million in typical seasonal compensation. Our model projects total expenses to be $1.39 billion for the first quarter of 2025, indicating a sequential rise of 2.3%.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for MTB

Per our proven model, the chances of M&T Bank beating estimates this time are low. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank is -0.73%.

Zacks Rank: M&T Bank currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB’s first-quarter earnings of $3.41 per share has been revised downward over the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 10.4% from the year-ago number.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.35 billion, implying a rise of 4% from the prior-year reported level.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some bank stocks, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.

The Earnings ESP for Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI Quick QuoteTCBI - Free Report) is +1.35%, and it carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. TCBI is slated to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 17. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Texas Capital Bancshares quarterly earnings has moved downward, indicating an increase of 12.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

PCB Bancorp (PCB Quick QuotePCB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.99% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. PCB is expected to release its first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 24.

PCB Bancorp quarterly earnings estimates have been revised upward in the past seven days, indicating an increase of 54.6% from the year-ago reported figure.