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Reasons Why You Should Hold Mosaic Stock in Your Portfolio Now

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The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) gains on favorable demand for phosphate and potash, high-return investments and actions to improve its cost structure amid headwinds from soft fertilizer prices.

MOS’s shares are down 23.1% in a year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 15.6% decline.

Let’s find out why MOS stock is worth retaining at the moment.

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Healthy Demand & Cost Actions Aid Mosaic Stock

MOS is benefiting from the strong demand for phosphate and potash, aided by favorable agricultural conditions. Attractive farm economics is driving demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs.

Demand for grains and oilseeds remains high globally. Improved farmer affordability is also likely to continue to drive demand for fertilizers. Improved crop prices have also incentivized fertilizer application by growers. In North America, strong yields and growers’ need to replenish soil nutrients have ushered in a favorable environment. Demand in Brazil is also expected to be driven by healthy grower economics and low levels of inventories. Low inventory levels and pent-up purchases are also expected to drive demand in India.

Mosaic is also taking action to reduce costs amid a still challenging operating environment. Its actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are expected to boost profitability. MOS remains on track with its cost-reduction plan, which is expected to drive $150 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2025.

MOS also remains committed to carrying out investments with high returns and moderate capital expenditures. It has completed the 800,000-ton MicroEssentials capacity conversions, with volumes expected to rise 25% in 2025. The Esterhazy Hydrofloat project, which will add 400,000 tons in milling capacity, is expected to be completed by the middle of 2025, followed by a ramp-up by the end of the year. The construction of a new blending and distribution center in Palmeirante, Brazil, is also expected to be completed by mid-2025. The facility is expected to enable Mosaic Fertilizantes to increase overall sales by one million tons.

Weak Fertilizer Prices Ail MOS Stock

Soft fertilizer prices are likely to weigh on MOS’s sales and margins. Prices of phosphate and potash have retreated since the back half of 2022 from their peak levels attained in the first half, riding on the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions due to the sanctions in Belarus. Lower potash selling prices hurt the company’s sales in the fourth quarter. Net sales declined nearly 11% year over year to $2,815.9 million in the quarter. While prices have recovered somewhat lately, weaker year-over-year selling prices are likely to continue to dent the company’s top line in the first quarter of 2025.

MOS’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks

MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are DRDGOLD Limited (DRD - Free Report) , Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. (IDR - Free Report) and Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS - Free Report) , each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DRD’s current-year earnings is pegged at $1.06 per share, indicating a 29.3% year-over-year rise. DRD’s shares have soared roughly 62% in the past year. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Idaho Strategic Resources’ current-year earnings is pegged at 78 cents, suggesting a 16.4% year-over-year rise. IDR surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing once, with an average earnings surprise of 77.5%. The company's shares have rallied 72% in the past year.

The consensus estimate for Carpenter Technology for the current fiscal year stands at $6.95, reflecting a 46.6% year-over-year increase. CRS beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 15.7%.

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