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Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end price forecast for safe-haven gold to $3700 per ounce, per Reuters.
Recession risks, dovish Fed, softer US dollar and higher central bank buying raised the appeal for gold.
There is high investment flow into gold-based ETFs. Tap the boom with ETFs like GLD, IAU and OUNZ.
Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2025 price forecast for gold to $3,700 per ounce, up from the previous estimate of $3,300, citing stronger-than-expected demand from central banks and increased investment flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) amid rising recession fears, as quoted on Reuters. The bank now expects gold to trade in a range of $3,650 to $3,950 per ounce this year.
Recession Risks Could Push Gold Higher
According to a note released Friday, Goldman Sachs warned that if a recession materializes, ETF inflows could surge even further — potentially pushing gold prices to $3,880 per troy ounce (toz) by the end of 2025.
Note that Wall Street economists maintained their forecasts for a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and cautioned that the recession risk is still high, despite the Trump administration’s latest decision to delay major tariffs on a wide range of trading partners.
Conversely, if economic growth surprises to the upside due to reduced policy uncertainty, ETF flows would likely slow, keeping prices closer to $3,550/toz by the year-end.
Market Reaction Mixed Amid Tariff Headlines
Spot gold prices reached yet another record high on April 14, climbing to $3,245.42 per ounce. However, prices showed limited direction as investors digested the latest developments in U.S. trade policy.
There is confusion regarding the tariffs on electronics. Although the White House exempted smartphones and computers from its list of “reciprocal” tariffs, President Donald Trump later indicated that new levies could still be imposed down the line.
Central Bank Buying Revised Higher
Goldman Sachs also revised its estimate for monthly central bank gold purchases, increasing its assumption to 80 metric tons per month from 70 tons previously.
Fed to Remain Dovish?
The Fed has been acting dovish currently and is likely to maintain the same stance ahead. If this is not enough, Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated on April 11 that the Federal Reserve is prepared to act if market conditions deteriorate. She emphasized that the Fed has acted quickly in the past and would do so again to ensure market stability. This could be good news for gold prices as gold investing thrives in a low-rate environment.
U.S. Dollar to Remain Subdued?
The US Dollar Index lost 3.1% last week, signaling weaker confidence in domestic assets. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) was off 2.8%. If the U.S. economy continues to face reciprocal tariffs from trading partners, the U.S. dollar has a high chance of further underperformance. Since gold is priced in the greenback, a low U.S. dollar bodes well for the yellow metal.
ETFs in Focus
Against this backdrop, investors can play gold-bullion-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD - Free Report) , iShares Gold Trust (IAU - Free Report) , SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM - Free Report) , abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL - Free Report) and VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ - Free Report) . These ETFs have gained around 20% so far this year (as of April 11, 2025). Even after this rally, investors can stick to gold ETFs, given Goldman Sachs’ latest prediction about gold prices.
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Gold to Hit $3700? ETFs in Focus
Key Takeaways
Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2025 price forecast for gold to $3,700 per ounce, up from the previous estimate of $3,300, citing stronger-than-expected demand from central banks and increased investment flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) amid rising recession fears, as quoted on Reuters. The bank now expects gold to trade in a range of $3,650 to $3,950 per ounce this year.
Recession Risks Could Push Gold Higher
According to a note released Friday, Goldman Sachs warned that if a recession materializes, ETF inflows could surge even further — potentially pushing gold prices to $3,880 per troy ounce (toz) by the end of 2025.
Note that Wall Street economists maintained their forecasts for a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and cautioned that the recession risk is still high, despite the Trump administration’s latest decision to delay major tariffs on a wide range of trading partners.
Conversely, if economic growth surprises to the upside due to reduced policy uncertainty, ETF flows would likely slow, keeping prices closer to $3,550/toz by the year-end.
Market Reaction Mixed Amid Tariff Headlines
Spot gold prices reached yet another record high on April 14, climbing to $3,245.42 per ounce. However, prices showed limited direction as investors digested the latest developments in U.S. trade policy.
There is confusion regarding the tariffs on electronics. Although the White House exempted smartphones and computers from its list of “reciprocal” tariffs, President Donald Trump later indicated that new levies could still be imposed down the line.
Central Bank Buying Revised Higher
Goldman Sachs also revised its estimate for monthly central bank gold purchases, increasing its assumption to 80 metric tons per month from 70 tons previously.
Fed to Remain Dovish?
The Fed has been acting dovish currently and is likely to maintain the same stance ahead. If this is not enough, Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated on April 11 that the Federal Reserve is prepared to act if market conditions deteriorate. She emphasized that the Fed has acted quickly in the past and would do so again to ensure market stability. This could be good news for gold prices as gold investing thrives in a low-rate environment.
U.S. Dollar to Remain Subdued?
The US Dollar Index lost 3.1% last week, signaling weaker confidence in domestic assets. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) was off 2.8%. If the U.S. economy continues to face reciprocal tariffs from trading partners, the U.S. dollar has a high chance of further underperformance. Since gold is priced in the greenback, a low U.S. dollar bodes well for the yellow metal.
ETFs in Focus
Against this backdrop, investors can play gold-bullion-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD - Free Report) , iShares Gold Trust (IAU - Free Report) , SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM - Free Report) , abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL - Free Report) and VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ - Free Report) . These ETFs have gained around 20% so far this year (as of April 11, 2025). Even after this rally, investors can stick to gold ETFs, given Goldman Sachs’ latest prediction about gold prices.