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NSC Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

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Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NSC’s first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 5.2% in the past 60 days to $2.72. However, the consensus mark implies a 9.2% rise from the year-ago actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NSC’s first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $3.01 billion, indicating a 0.1% rise year over year.

NSC’s earnings lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate once in the preceding four quarters and surpassed the mark in the remaining three quarters, delivering an average rise of 2.9%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for NSC this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced NSC’s Q1 Performance

The top-line performance in the first quarter is expected to have been hurt by inflationary pressure, high interest rates, tariff-related uncertainties, weak freight demand and supply-chain disruptions.

The consensus mark for the Intermodal segment’s revenues is pegged at $767.6 million, implying a 3% increase from the first-quarter 2024 reported number. The consensus mark for the Coal segment’s revenues is pegged at $368.8 million, implying a 7% decrease from the first-quarter 2024 reported number.

E-commerce demand has been driving shipment volumes for Norfolk Southern and is likely to boost results. The company leverages its Precision Scheduled Railroading operating plan to cut costs and improve service quality, ensuring efficient use of assets. NSC’s robust free cash flow generation also enables it to maintain steady, shareholder-friendly initiatives.

On the flip side, softness in freight revenues and volumes is a negative for NSC and is likely to have hurt its performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says About NSC

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Norfolk Southern this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Norfolk Southern has an Earnings ESP of -0.60% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Highlights of NSC’s Q4 Earnings

NSC's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of $3.04 per share (excluding 19 cents from non-recurring items) beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.95 and increased 7.4% year over year due to lower costs.
 

Railway operating revenues were $3.02 billion in the quarter under review, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.03 billion. The top line decreased 2% year over year due to weakness across all segments.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.

C.H. Robinson ((CHRW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.37% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 30. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.94% upward in the past 90 days. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 21.7%. 

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.76% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. EXPD is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 6.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.94% upward in the past 90 days. EXPD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 11.6%.

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