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How Should You Approach UAL Stock Following Q1 Earnings Beat?

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On April 15, United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) reported better-than-expected earnings per share for the first quarter of 2025 despite the tariff-induced uncertainty. Moreover, the bottom line improved significantly year over year. Given the current uncertain scenario, UAL has offered 2025 earnings per share guidance for two scenarios — a stable environment and a recessionary environment.

The earnings beat and the bottom-line improvement, despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, pleased investors, with the stock gaining 5.5% in the April 15 after-market trading session.  Management stated that this was the best first-quarter financial performance by UAL in five years.  Now, the question is whether it is worth buying the stock at the current price. Let us dig deeper to find out.

Highlights of Q1 Earnings

United Airlines’ first-quarter 2025 earnings per share (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of 91 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 75 cents. In the year-ago quarter, this Chicago-based airline had incurred a loss of 15 cents per share. Operating revenues of $13.21 billion fell marginally short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.22 billion.

During the first quarter, revenues from premium cabin and basic economy were up 9.2% and 7.6% year over year, respectively. Premium cabin unit revenues were up in mid-single digits. Business revenues were up 7.4%.

Domestic travel was soft due to tariff-induced uncertainties. International revenues remained strong, owing to the buoyant demand for long-haul travel. Atlantic unit revenues or revenue per available seat mile and Pacific revenue per available seat mile were up 4.7% and 8.5% on a year-over-year basis.

The latest earnings beat was UAL’s fourth in a row, demonstrating an excellent earnings history, with the average beat being 10.3%.

UAL Offers a Dual Outlook for FY25

Given the market uncertainty and lack of clarity, UAL has offered 2025 earnings per share guidance for two scenarios.

In case of a stable market environment, UAL expects 2025 adjusted EPS between $11.50 and $13.50. In a recessionary environment, UAL expects 2025 adjusted EPS between $7 and $9.

To combat the weak demand scenario, UAL intends to reduce off-peak flying on lower-demand days. To that end, UAL aims to remove 4 points of scheduled domestic capacity, starting in the third quarter of 2025.

What Do Earnings Estimates Say for UAL?

Despite the earnings beat, annual earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 have moved south over the past seven days. The uncertainty, reflected in UAL’s outlook, has caused the southward movement.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

UAL’s Tepid Price Performance

Due to the slowdown in domestic air travel demand, airline stocks have performed dismally lately. UAL and other key players in the Zacks Transportation- Airline industry, such as Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) and American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) , have declined significantly in the year-to-date period, underperforming the industry. Shares of Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines have plunged 32.8%, 31.5% and 46.3%, respectively.

YTD Price Comparison

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

While United Airlines and Delta Air Lines have reported their first-quarter numbers. American Airlines will do the same on April 24. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

Some Positives for UAL

The southward movement of oil price bodes well for the bottom-line growth of United Airlines. This is because fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the aviation space. Crude oil is struggling in 2025, with prices sliding to multi-month lows. Tariff concerns, weakening consumer confidence and production increase by OPEC+ have all resulted in this downward pressure. Consequently, expenses on aircraft fuel and related taxes declined 8.6% year over year in the first quarter of 2025, aiding UAL’s bottom line.

UAL’s balance sheet further underscores its strength. Investor-friendly initiatives add another layer of appeal. In October, UAL announced a $1.5 billion share buyback plan, highlighting its pro-shareholder approach. This was the first buyback program announced by UAL since suspending share repurchases during the COVID-19 pandemic. UAL repurchased shares worth $451 million through April 10.

From a valuation perspective, UAL is trading at a discount compared with the industrial levels, going by the forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio. The company has a Value Score of A. UAL’s reading is lower than Delta Air Lines and a tad higher than American Airlines.

UAL’s P/S F12M Vs. Industry, DAL & AAL
Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Best to Avoid UAL Stock Now

There is no doubt that UAL stock is attractively valued. The company’s shareholder-friendly initiatives and low fuel costs add to its appeal. However, headwinds like the tariff-induced uncertainty, due to which UAL offered a dual full-year 2025 earnings outlook, and high labor costs, cannot be ignored. Declining earnings estimates also do not help matters. 

Given the current turbulence, we can safely say that despite the earnings beat by UAL in the March quarter, it is not at all advisable to buy the stock now. Until there is more clarity, investors should avoid United Airlines stock and wait for a more stable setup.

UAL currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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