We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the March-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.42 per share, implying a 0.7% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. The estimate has been revised downward by seven cents over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $21.06 billion, indicating a decline of 3% from the year-ago quarter’s actuals.
UPS has an impressive earnings surprise history as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q1 Earnings Whispers for UPS
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UPS this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
The company's Earnings ESP is -4.08%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $1.36 per share, six cents below the Zacks Consensus Estimate. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Likely to Influence UPS’ Q1 Results
Shipping volumes at UPS are likely to have been hurt by geopolitical uncertainties and high inflation. The silver lining is that since the first quarter covered a period (January-March) of normal business and the new tariffs took effect in the second quarter, tariff woes are unlikely to get reflected in the numbers of the March quarter. We believe that more than the financial numbers, it is the guidance that investors will more closely watch.
Labor costs are likely to have been high, hurting United Parcel Service’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter. Low fuel costs are expected to have aided UPS’ bottom-line performance in the March-end quarter. We expect expenses on fuel to decrease 5.1% from first-quarter 2024 actuals. Crude oil has been struggling in 2025, with prices sliding to multi-month lows. Tariff concerns, weakening consumer confidence and production increase by OPEC+ have all contributed to this downward pressure.
Dismal Price Performance of UPS Stock
UPS stock has performed unimpressively on the bourses in a year. The stock has depreciated 32.9%, performing worse than its industry’s 29.7% decline in the same timeframe. The S&P 500 composite index rose 7% in the same time frame while the Zacks Transportation sector plunged 19.5%. UPS has also lagged its rival FedEx (FDX - Free Report) and another industry player GXO Logistics (GXO - Free Report) in a year.
One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
UPS’ Valuation Stretched
UPS’ stock is expensive, trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.96, higher than the industry and GXO Logistics and FedEx. UPS stock has a Value Score of C. Meanwhile, GXO Logistics and FedEx have a Value Score of B and A, respectively.
UPS’ P/S F12M Vs. Industry, FDX & GXO
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for UPS Stock
Due to the decline in shipping demand, volumes at UPS have suffered. UPS expects average daily volumes to decrease 8.5% in 2025 from 2024 actuals. A slowdown in online sales in the United States, apart from a softness in global manufacturing activity, has been hurting the demand scenario.
Moreover, a rise in inflation over the past couple of months has unsettled markets. Of late, U.S. markets have been characterized by a high degree of volatility amid uncertainty surrounding its trade policy and growing anxiety about a slowing economy.
Hefty tariffs on the nation’s biggest trading partners have given rise to fears of an economic slowdown. However, the recent signals of easing of the U.S.-China trade tussle bode well for UPS. Concerns over the sustainability of UPS’ dividends in this era of demand weakness represent a further challenge for this parcel delivery company. However, UPS’ expansion efforts look good.
What Should Investors Do With UPS Stock?
It is worth noting that the company has the brand and the network to continue generating steady cash flows in the long run. This makes UPS a compelling long-term player in the transportation space. However, the near-term headwinds, including the tariff-induced uncertainties, are hard to ignore. Though the company has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates, it will be prudent for investors to stay away from investing in the stock for now and wait for the upcoming quarterly results to get more clarity on the company’s near-term prospects.
Zacks' 7 Best Strong Buy Stocks (New Research Report)
Valued at $99, click below to receive our just-released report predicting the 7 stocks that will soar highest in the coming month.
Image: Bigstock
UPS Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: How to Play the Stock
United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the March-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.42 per share, implying a 0.7% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. The estimate has been revised downward by seven cents over the past 60 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $21.06 billion, indicating a decline of 3% from the year-ago quarter’s actuals.
UPS has an impressive earnings surprise history as shown in the chart below.
Q1 Earnings Whispers for UPS
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UPS this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
The company's Earnings ESP is -4.08%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $1.36 per share, six cents below the Zacks Consensus Estimate. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
UPS currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Likely to Influence UPS’ Q1 Results
Shipping volumes at UPS are likely to have been hurt by geopolitical uncertainties and high inflation. The silver lining is that since the first quarter covered a period (January-March) of normal business and the new tariffs took effect in the second quarter, tariff woes are unlikely to get reflected in the numbers of the March quarter. We believe that more than the financial numbers, it is the guidance that investors will more closely watch.
Labor costs are likely to have been high, hurting United Parcel Service’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter. Low fuel costs are expected to have aided UPS’ bottom-line performance in the March-end quarter. We expect expenses on fuel to decrease 5.1% from first-quarter 2024 actuals. Crude oil has been struggling in 2025, with prices sliding to multi-month lows. Tariff concerns, weakening consumer confidence and production increase by OPEC+ have all contributed to this downward pressure.
Dismal Price Performance of UPS Stock
UPS stock has performed unimpressively on the bourses in a year. The stock has depreciated 32.9%, performing worse than its industry’s 29.7% decline in the same timeframe. The S&P 500 composite index rose 7% in the same time frame while the Zacks Transportation sector plunged 19.5%. UPS has also lagged its rival FedEx (FDX - Free Report) and another industry player GXO Logistics (GXO - Free Report) in a year.
One-Year Price Performance
UPS’ Valuation Stretched
UPS’ stock is expensive, trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.96, higher than the industry and GXO Logistics and FedEx. UPS stock has a Value Score of C. Meanwhile, GXO Logistics and FedEx have a Value Score of B and A, respectively.
UPS’ P/S F12M Vs. Industry, FDX & GXO
Investment Thesis for UPS Stock
Due to the decline in shipping demand, volumes at UPS have suffered. UPS expects average daily volumes to decrease 8.5% in 2025 from 2024 actuals. A slowdown in online sales in the United States, apart from a softness in global manufacturing activity, has been hurting the demand scenario.
Moreover, a rise in inflation over the past couple of months has unsettled markets. Of late, U.S. markets have been characterized by a high degree of volatility amid uncertainty surrounding its trade policy and growing anxiety about a slowing economy.
Hefty tariffs on the nation’s biggest trading partners have given rise to fears of an economic slowdown. However, the recent signals of easing of the U.S.-China trade tussle bode well for UPS. Concerns over the sustainability of UPS’ dividends in this era of demand weakness represent a further challenge for this parcel delivery company. However, UPS’ expansion efforts look good.
What Should Investors Do With UPS Stock?
It is worth noting that the company has the brand and the network to continue generating steady cash flows in the long run. This makes UPS a compelling long-term player in the transportation space. However, the near-term headwinds, including the tariff-induced uncertainties, are hard to ignore. Though the company has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates, it will be prudent for investors to stay away from investing in the stock for now and wait for the upcoming quarterly results to get more clarity on the company’s near-term prospects.