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Novo Nordisk Before Q1 Earnings: How Should Investors Play the Stock?
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Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) is expected to beat estimates when it reports its first-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on May 7, 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $11.33 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at 91 cents per share. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo Nordisk’s 2025 earnings per share (EPS) declined from $3.88 to $3.81. During the same time frame, the company’s 2026 EPS forecast has dropped from $4.79 to $4.66.
NVO Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NVO’s Earnings Surprise History
Novo Nordisk’s performance has been mixed over the trailing four quarters, with earnings beating estimates in two quarters and missing the mark on the other two occasions. On average, Novo Nordisk registered an earnings surprise of 1.97% in the last four quarters. In the last reported quarter, the company reported an earnings surprise of 9.64%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers for NVO
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Novo Nordisk this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Novo Nordisk operates under two segments — Diabetes and Obesity Care and Rare disease. Revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to have been driven primarily by the strong demand for NVO’s diabetes and obesity care medicines, especially semaglutide. Notably, semaglutide, a GLP-1 agonist, is approved as an Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes (T2D) and as a Wegovy injection for weight management.
Wegovy is likely to have been the key top-line contributor for Novo Nordisk in the to-be-reported quarter on the back of strong prescription trends. Wegovy’s label has been expanded in the United States and the EU to reduce the risk of serious heart problems in obese/overweight adults, which has been boosting its sales.
Ozempic sales are likely to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter based on the trend witnessed in the past few quarters, fueled by rising demand. Quarterly revenues from sales of Rybelsus and certain insulin products are likely to have put up a strong performance in first-quarter 2025, contributing to the top-line growth.
Novo Nordisk’s revenues under the Rare Disease segment are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter, mainly due to higher sales of its hemophilia A and B products.
NVO’s Price Performance & Near-Par Valuation
Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have plunged 27.2% against the industry’s 0.6% growth. The company has also underperformed in the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below. The stock is currently trading below both its 50 and 200-day moving averages.
NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Novo Nordisk is trading almost at par with the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 15.32 forward earnings, which is marginally lower than 15.70 for the industry.
NVO Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Novo Nordisk stock has suffered significantly in the past few months due to internal and sector-specific developments, as well as broader macroeconomic headwinds. Company-specific developments that have caused the stock to crash include disappointing data from two late-stage studies for NVO’s next-generation subcutaneous obesity candidate, CagriSema, a follow-up drug to Wegovy.
NVO faces serious competition from Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) in the diabetes and obesity care market space. Lilly has seen unparalleled success with tirzepatide, a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, which is marketed as Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity. Lilly’s Zepbound had earlier outperformed Wegovy (20.2% compared with 13.7%) in a head-to-head weight-loss study, which could lead to a shift in patient preference from Wegovy to Zepbound, potentially resulting in a loss of market share. Lilly recently announced that its oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, matched Ozempic in reducing weight and blood sugar in T2D patients, with the added benefit of no food or water restrictions, unlike Rybelsus therapy.
Several other companies like Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) are also making rapid progress in developing GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline. Amgen plans to conduct a broad phase III program on its dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, MariTide, across obesity, obesity-related conditions and T2D, with the first studies to begin in the first half of 2025. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for treating obesity.
Earlier this month, Medicare announced that it will not cover costly weight-loss drugs, such as NVO’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound, as obesity remains unclassified as a disease. Consequently, these medications, often viewed as cosmetic, may become less accessible to patients. This also contributed to NVO’s stock decline.
Overall, pharma stocks are experiencing a downtrend threatened by the uncertainty surrounding the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Though pharmaceuticals have been exempted from tariffs this time around, they could well be Trump’s target in the next round, considering the President’s goal to shift pharmaceutical production back to the United States, mostly from European and Asian countries. Though the Trump administration has implemented a 90-day pause on all trading partners, excluding China, when imposed, tariffs on pharmaceutical imports can lead to potential disruptions to global supply chains and increased production costs.
However, not all is wrong at NVO. Novo Nordisk is making good progress with its pipeline, which includes several other new candidates for T2D and obesity. NVO also has strong fundamentals, and the untapped nature of the obesity market makes us believe that the setback is temporary. Rising sales of its GLP-1 products have significantly boosted its top line. The company is looking to further expand Wegovy’s label to treat patients with obesity-related heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in the EU and U.S. markets. Label expansion efforts for Ozempic and Rybelsus are also ongoing.
NVO has also been investing heavily to expand its manufacturing capacity as part of its strategic move to entrench its diabetes and obesity care market leadership for its GLP-1 products. The company is also investigating semaglutide’s potential in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis. Beyond diabetes and obesity, Novo Nordisk is diversifying its portfolio by developing Mim8 for hemophilia A, with plans to submit it for U.S. approval soon.
Novo Nordisk and Lilly have both recently announced price cuts for their respective obesity medications, allowing cash-paying patients to purchase the drugs for a reduced price. This has increased patient access, thereby driving the drugs’ sales.
How to Play NVO Stock
Given Novo Nordisk's recent challenges, short-term investors may consider exiting their position due to near-term volatility and downward estimate revisions. However, the company exhibits potential to bounce back in the future. The recent pipeline setbacks, coupled with macroeconomic tensions, that caused the stock price to slide are likely to be temporary, and we remain confident that NVO is a good stock to retain. The company operates in a lucrative market that is rapidly expanding. Its strong year-over-year revenue and profit growth, fueled by rising demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, suggests long-term potential.
Thus, long-term investors who already own the stock should consider holding onto it, no matter how the first-quarter results pan out and the stock’s reaction to the results. NVO’s efforts to expand the labels of marketed products are commendable and could significantly increase the eligible patient pool and drive future revenues. The FDA's removal of semaglutide from its shortage list and recent price reductions for Wegovy are also expected to improve access and support sales growth. Nevertheless, Lilly remains a formidable adversary in the obesity market space, which threatens NVO’s market share. Novo Nordisk is also developing new obesity treatments to stay competitive, especially in the U.S. market. The recent decline in the stock price presents an attractive entry point for new long-term investors.
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Novo Nordisk Before Q1 Earnings: How Should Investors Play the Stock?
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) is expected to beat estimates when it reports its first-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on May 7, 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $11.33 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at 91 cents per share. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo Nordisk’s 2025 earnings per share (EPS) declined from $3.88 to $3.81. During the same time frame, the company’s 2026 EPS forecast has dropped from $4.79 to $4.66.
NVO Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NVO’s Earnings Surprise History
Novo Nordisk’s performance has been mixed over the trailing four quarters, with earnings beating estimates in two quarters and missing the mark on the other two occasions. On average, Novo Nordisk registered an earnings surprise of 1.97% in the last four quarters. In the last reported quarter, the company reported an earnings surprise of 9.64%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers for NVO
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Novo Nordisk this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Novo Nordisk has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping NVO’s Upcoming Results
Novo Nordisk operates under two segments — Diabetes and Obesity Care and Rare disease. Revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to have been driven primarily by the strong demand for NVO’s diabetes and obesity care medicines, especially semaglutide. Notably, semaglutide, a GLP-1 agonist, is approved as an Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes (T2D) and as a Wegovy injection for weight management.
Wegovy is likely to have been the key top-line contributor for Novo Nordisk in the to-be-reported quarter on the back of strong prescription trends. Wegovy’s label has been expanded in the United States and the EU to reduce the risk of serious heart problems in obese/overweight adults, which has been boosting its sales.
Ozempic sales are likely to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter based on the trend witnessed in the past few quarters, fueled by rising demand. Quarterly revenues from sales of Rybelsus and certain insulin products are likely to have put up a strong performance in first-quarter 2025, contributing to the top-line growth.
Novo Nordisk’s revenues under the Rare Disease segment are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter, mainly due to higher sales of its hemophilia A and B products.
NVO’s Price Performance & Near-Par Valuation
Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have plunged 27.2% against the industry’s 0.6% growth. The company has also underperformed in the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below. The stock is currently trading below both its 50 and 200-day moving averages.
NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Novo Nordisk is trading almost at par with the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 15.32 forward earnings, which is marginally lower than 15.70 for the industry.
NVO Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Novo Nordisk stock has suffered significantly in the past few months due to internal and sector-specific developments, as well as broader macroeconomic headwinds. Company-specific developments that have caused the stock to crash include disappointing data from two late-stage studies for NVO’s next-generation subcutaneous obesity candidate, CagriSema, a follow-up drug to Wegovy.
NVO faces serious competition from Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) in the diabetes and obesity care market space. Lilly has seen unparalleled success with tirzepatide, a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, which is marketed as Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity. Lilly’s Zepbound had earlier outperformed Wegovy (20.2% compared with 13.7%) in a head-to-head weight-loss study, which could lead to a shift in patient preference from Wegovy to Zepbound, potentially resulting in a loss of market share. Lilly recently announced that its oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, matched Ozempic in reducing weight and blood sugar in T2D patients, with the added benefit of no food or water restrictions, unlike Rybelsus therapy.
Several other companies like Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) are also making rapid progress in developing GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline. Amgen plans to conduct a broad phase III program on its dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, MariTide, across obesity, obesity-related conditions and T2D, with the first studies to begin in the first half of 2025. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for treating obesity.
Earlier this month, Medicare announced that it will not cover costly weight-loss drugs, such as NVO’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound, as obesity remains unclassified as a disease. Consequently, these medications, often viewed as cosmetic, may become less accessible to patients. This also contributed to NVO’s stock decline.
Overall, pharma stocks are experiencing a downtrend threatened by the uncertainty surrounding the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Though pharmaceuticals have been exempted from tariffs this time around, they could well be Trump’s target in the next round, considering the President’s goal to shift pharmaceutical production back to the United States, mostly from European and Asian countries. Though the Trump administration has implemented a 90-day pause on all trading partners, excluding China, when imposed, tariffs on pharmaceutical imports can lead to potential disruptions to global supply chains and increased production costs.
However, not all is wrong at NVO. Novo Nordisk is making good progress with its pipeline, which includes several other new candidates for T2D and obesity. NVO also has strong fundamentals, and the untapped nature of the obesity market makes us believe that the setback is temporary. Rising sales of its GLP-1 products have significantly boosted its top line. The company is looking to further expand Wegovy’s label to treat patients with obesity-related heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in the EU and U.S. markets. Label expansion efforts for Ozempic and Rybelsus are also ongoing.
NVO has also been investing heavily to expand its manufacturing capacity as part of its strategic move to entrench its diabetes and obesity care market leadership for its GLP-1 products. The company is also investigating semaglutide’s potential in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis. Beyond diabetes and obesity, Novo Nordisk is diversifying its portfolio by developing Mim8 for hemophilia A, with plans to submit it for U.S. approval soon.
Novo Nordisk and Lilly have both recently announced price cuts for their respective obesity medications, allowing cash-paying patients to purchase the drugs for a reduced price. This has increased patient access, thereby driving the drugs’ sales.
How to Play NVO Stock
Given Novo Nordisk's recent challenges, short-term investors may consider exiting their position due to near-term volatility and downward estimate revisions. However, the company exhibits potential to bounce back in the future. The recent pipeline setbacks, coupled with macroeconomic tensions, that caused the stock price to slide are likely to be temporary, and we remain confident that NVO is a good stock to retain. The company operates in a lucrative market that is rapidly expanding. Its strong year-over-year revenue and profit growth, fueled by rising demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, suggests long-term potential.
Thus, long-term investors who already own the stock should consider holding onto it, no matter how the first-quarter results pan out and the stock’s reaction to the results. NVO’s efforts to expand the labels of marketed products are commendable and could significantly increase the eligible patient pool and drive future revenues. The FDA's removal of semaglutide from its shortage list and recent price reductions for Wegovy are also expected to improve access and support sales growth. Nevertheless, Lilly remains a formidable adversary in the obesity market space, which threatens NVO’s market share. Novo Nordisk is also developing new obesity treatments to stay competitive, especially in the U.S. market. The recent decline in the stock price presents an attractive entry point for new long-term investors.