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What's in the Cards for Aimco (AIV) this Earnings Season?

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Apartment Investment & Management Co. (AIV - Free Report) – commonly known as Aimco – is slated to report fourth quarter and 2016 results on Feb 2, 2017, after the market closes.

Last quarter, this residential real estate investment trust (“REIT”) posted a negative surprise of 1.79%.

Aimco has a mixed earnings surprise history. Over the trailing four quarters, the company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions and missed the mark in the rest. Overall, Aimco has delivered an average positive surprise of 0.92%.

The fourth-quarter funds from operation (“FFO”) per share for the company is currently pegged at 60 cents.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for Aimco prior to this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Aimco enjoys a healthy portfolio, diversified both across geography and price point. The company also has a robust balance sheet.

For the fourth quarter, Aimco provided pro forma FFO guidance in a band of 58–62 cents per share. For 2016, the company raised pro forma FFO per share guidance range to $2.29–$2.33 from the previous range of $2.26–$2.34.

However, Aimco is reorienting its portfolio through property sales and reinvesting the proceeds in select apartment homes with high rents, margins and greater-than-expected growth. While it is a strategic fit on the part of the company to sell its non-core assets and buy property in higher-growth infill areas, the dilutive impact on earnings from such asset dispositions cannot be avoided either in the near term.

Also, the hike in interest rate remains a concern for Aimco. This is because the company’s ability to refinance existing debt would be restricted, while the interest cost on new debt would increase. This could adversely affect its results.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Aimco will beat on earnings this season. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. However, that is not the case here as you will see below.  

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are on par, which translates into an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Aimco currently has a Zacks Rank #3. Though this increases the predictive power of ESP, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.  

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some REITs that you may want to consider as our model shows that they also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Camden Property Trust (CPT - Free Report) , is expected to release earnings results on Feb 7, has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank #3.

CubeSmart (CUBE - Free Report) , expected to release earnings results on Feb 16, has an Earnings ESP of +2.70% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Ashford Hospitality Prime, Inc. , expected to release earnings results on Feb 22, has an Earnings ESP of +16.67% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Note: All EPS numbers presented in this write up represent funds from operations (FFO) per share. FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income.

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