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Papa John's (PZZA) Q4 Earnings Top, Revenues Lag; Stock Down

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Shares of Papa John’s International, Inc. (PZZA - Free Report) declined nearly 4% in after-hour trading on Feb 21, after the company reported mixed fourth-quarter 2016 results. Though earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, revenues missed the same.

Earnings and Revenue Discussion

Adjusted earnings of 69 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 66 cents by 4.5%. Moreover, earnings increased 11.3% year over year owing to higher revenues.
 

 

Revenues of $439.6 million failed to surpass the consensus mark of $445.8 million by 1.4%. However, revenues increased 5.5% year over year. The upside reflects higher domestic company-owned restaurant sales, increase in North America franchise royalties and fees, improved North America commissary and other sales along with higher international revenues.

Behind the Headline Numbers

Global restaurant sales growth of 5.3% in the fourth quarter was better than the year-ago growth of 3.4%, but lower than 7.6% in the prior quarter.

Excluding foreign currency impact, global restaurant sales growth was 7%, which was also better than the year-ago comps growth of 5.7%, but lower than the prior-quarter growth of 8.9%.

Domestic company-owned restaurant sales were up 7.2%, primarily due to a 3.2% increase in equivalent units and a 4.8% rise in comparable sales. North America franchise royalties and fees were up 6.3% driven by a 3.4% rise in comparable sales and reduced levels of royalty incentives in 2016. North America commissary and other sales were up 2.9% on the back of higher commissary sales.

Comps at system-wide North American restaurants were up 3.8%, higher than 1.9% comps growth in the year-ago quarter, but lower than the 5.5% growth last quarter.

International revenues were up 8.9% year over year primarily due to higher royalties and commissary sales, somewhat offset by lower company-owned restaurant sales in China. Currency affected international revenues by $4.5 million. Comps at system-wide international restaurants increased 5.6%, better than comps growth of 5.3% a year ago, but weaker than 7.6% growth in the preceding quarter.

Papa John's International, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Papa John's International, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Papa John's International, Inc. Quote

2016 Results

Papa John’s full-year adjusted earnings of $2.55 topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.53 by 0.8%. Moreover, it increased 22% from the year-ago quarter figure of $2.09 on the back of higher revenues.

Full-year revenues of $1.71 billion slightly missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72 billion, but increased 4.7% year over year.

Guidance for 2017

For 2017, Papa John’s expects adjusted earnings per share to grow in the range of 8% to 12%.

North America system-wide comps are projected to rise in the band of 2% to 4%. Meanwhile, international comps are expected to be up in a range of 4% to 6%, in 2017.

Capital expenditures are expected to range between $45 and $55 million.

The company expects net global new unit to grow in the range of 4–5%, with majority of the growth coming in the second half of year.

Zacks Rank & Stocks to Consider

Papa John’s holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Other favourably-placed stocks in this sector include Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY - Free Report) , Potbelly Corporation (PBPB - Free Report) and Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI - Free Report) . While Dave & Buster's and Potbelly sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Darden carries the same Zacks Rank as Papa John’s. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dave & Buster's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 37.81%. Meanwhile, for fiscal 2017, EPS is expected to improve 35.1%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Potbelly’s 2017 earnings climbed 2.2% over the past 30 days. The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 39.82%.

Darden’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 2.57%. Further, for fiscal 2017, EPS is expected to grow 11.1%.

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