What of this Global Week Ahead?

Coming trading days have a full smorgasbord …of boilerplate data and events.

However full, if you expect big surprises -- from either politics or macro data -- you may well be disappointed by this large agenda.

Despite the considerable noise and hoopla coming from new administrations on both sides of the Atlantic, traders most likely should anticipate a ‘muddle through’ scene – for politics, companies and stocks.

It’s déjà vu, all over again.

Case in point. On Sunday night, U.S. House & Senate negotiators reached a bi-partisan agreement on a $1.1 trillion budget. Under this agreement, the U.S. government stays open through the end of September.

Bloomberg wrote that Republican leaders -- eager to focus on health-care and tax overhauls -- bowed to Democratic demands to eliminate hundreds of policy restrictions aimed at curbing regulations.

This left the Trump administration with few victories. President Trump will be able to point to a $15 billion boost for the Pentagon.

Second, during the Global Week Ahead: 124 S&P 500 firms release earnings.

Any quarterly surprises will be concentrated in the Tech sector and Big Pharma.
Key names include Apple, Facebook, Time Warner, CBS, Kellogg, Loews, Merck, Pfizer, Mastercard and Berkshire Hathaway.

Third, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting happens.

This culminates in a statement-only outcome on Wednesday at 2 pm ET. There will be no FOMC forecast updates or press conference.

Chair Yellen’s published statement should be brief. Language from the last statement should be the boilerplate. A minor change to wording could concern the Fed’s reinvestment policy on the huge $4.2 trillion Fed balance sheet.

On Friday, the Fed’s Vice Chair, Stanley Fischer, speaks publicly. That will close out the Fed story. This may be the only non-boilerplate moment from them.

Fourth, Friday’s release of April U.S. non-farm payroll data will be the big macro fundamental event.

Expect a bounce back (already foreseen) from March’s disappointing +98K pace of job adds. Wage growth should stick around the +2¾% y/y pace.  In short, the muddle through scene is still the consensus on U.S. growth fundamentals.

Finally, on Sunday, May 7th, the French Presidential election gets held. The week’s European calendar of data should get ignored, in light of these politics.

Opinionway’s poll, published inside the Financial Times, predicts Emmanuel Macron wins 61% of the vote in the French run-off, with Marine Le Pen at 39%.

This 20-point gap is very wide. It hasn’t moved much. The bigger question may be to ask: Will Russian hackers attack Macron, like they did Hillary Clinton?

In Asia last week, Indian stock markets hit record highs. This was the 4th consecutive month of stock’s rallying there.  

Keep an eye on that. This Indian stock market run may be news -- away from your usual headlines -- that is not boilerplate.

???In conclusion, there are copious data and events to this week’s Global scene.

…But few surprises to brace for.

Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—

(1) BASF SE (BASFY Quick QuoteBASFY - Free Report) : This is the big German diversified chemical company. This stock is a behemoth, at $89 billion in market capitalization. The long-term Zacks VGM score here is B.

(2) CSX Corp. (CSX Quick QuoteCSX - Free Report) : This is the big East Coast U.S. railroad group headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.  Are the U.S. railroads back from a slump? The stock has $46 billion in market cap. The long-term Zacks VGM score here is B.

(3) Volvo AB (VLVLY Quick QuoteVLVLY - Free Report) : This is the Swedish auto and truck group. The stock has a $33 billion market cap. The long-term Zacks VGM score here is A.

Key Global Macro—

The big macro data is Friday’s non-farm U.S. Federal payroll data. But ADP private payroll data -- out on Wednesday -- will be a nice foreshadowing event.

On Monday, both U.S. Personal Income & Spending may be up +0.3% m/m. Core Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE - analogous to consumer inflation) could be down -0.1% m/m.

The U.S. manufacturing PMI arrives. The prior reading was 52.8.

On Tuesday, the India manufacturing PMI comes out. The prior was 52.5.

The Eurozone unemployment rate(s) come out. The prior composite was 9.5%.

There are major differences among countries. The prior unemployment rate in Germany was 5.8%. The prior unemployment rate for Italy was 11.5%.

The manufacturing PMI for Greece comes out. The prior was 46.7.

The Markit PMI for Brazil comes out. The prior was 49.6 and the forecast is for 49.8. A break above 50 would be huge news.

On Wednesday, the Fed’s FOMC meeting hits. The Fed Funds rate should stay unchanged at 1.0%.

Preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone in Q1 comes out. Look for +1.7% y/y.

The U.S. ADP employment survey hits the tape. Look for +170K in April, down from +263K in March.

The ISM non-manufacturing index comes out. Look for 55.2 to go to 55.0. Both are quite strong.

On Thursday, European services PMIs come out. France ay 57.7, Germany at 54.7 and Italy at 52.9 all look strong in the prior numbers. The Eurozone composite was 56.7.

U.S. initial claims should be low at 257K.

The Fed’s Evans, Rosengren, & Bullard speak at Stanford in California.

On Friday, U.S. non-farm payroll hits the tape. The prior was an anemic +98K. Let’s see if that data gets revised. The prior unemployment rate was 4.5%.

The Fed’s Fischer speaks in California.