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Why Is Milacron (MCRN) Down 6.7% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Milacron Holdings Corp. . Shares have lost about 6.7% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Milacron Q1 Earnings In Line, Revenues Beat Estimates

Milacron reported first-quarter fiscal 2017 adjusted earnings per share of $0.32, a 19% increase from $0.27 in the year-ago quarter but came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Including one-time items, the company reported a loss per share of $0.36 in the quarter compared with earnings per share of $0.14 per share in the year-ago quarter.
 
Operational Update

Milacron reported revenues of $285 million, a 2.9% rise year over year. Revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $268 million. Excluding the unfavorable impact of foreign currency, sales for the quarter increased 4.3% from the prior-year period.

Cost of sales during the quarter went up 5.7% year over year to $192 million compared with the prior-year quarter. Gross profit declined 2% year over year to $93.8 million with gross margin contracting 180 basis points to 32.9%.

Selling, general and administrative expenses went up 3% year over year to $64.6 million. Milacron reported adjusted operating profit of $22 million which decreased 13% from $26 million in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA went up 6% to $50 million for the quarter from $47 million in the prior-year quarter.

Segment Results

Advanced Plastic Processing Technologies: Net sales inched up 0.3% year over year to $157 million. Excluding $0.9 million of unfavorable effects of currency movements, sales increased 0.9% over the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 5% year over year to $17.4 million.

Melt Delivery and Control Systems: Net sales went up 7.3% year over year to $100 million. Excluding unfavorable influence of currency movements of $2.2 million, sales advanced 9.7% over the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA improved 6% to $32.8 million.

Fluid Technologies: Net sales went up 3% year over year to $29 million. Excluding $0.8 million of unfavorable effects of currency movements, sales increased 5.7% over the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 3% to $5.9 million.

Financial Update

As of Mar 31, 2017, Milacron had cash and cash equivalents of $88 million compared with $130.2 million as of Dec 31, 2016. The company used $8.7 million of cash in operating activities in the first quarter compared with $23.9 million in the prior year quarter. Long-term debt was $922.8 million as of Mar 31, 2017, compared with $934 million as of Dec 31, 2016.

Guidance

For fiscal 2017, Milacron projects organic sales growth of 0% to 2%. Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be between $219 million and $225 million. Free Cash Flow (before restructuring) is expected to lie between $90 million and $100 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out fresh estimates flatlined during the past month. There has been one revision higher for the current quarter compared to one lower.

Milacron Holdings Corp. Price and Consensus

 

VGM Scores

At this time, Milacron's stock has a subpar Growth Score of 'D'. However, its Momentum is doing a bit better with a 'B'. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'B' on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'C'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate that the stock is suitable for both momentum and value investors.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect in-line returns from the stock in the next few months.

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