Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Why Is Alexion (ALXN) Down 23% Since the Last Earnings Report?

Read MoreHide Full Article

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. . Shares have lost about 23% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Alexion Tops Q1 Earnings, Revenues; Ups '17 View

Alexion Pharmaceuticals first-quarter 2017 earnings (including stock-based compensation expense) of $1.20 per share compared with the year ago earnings of  $0.76. The reported figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05.

Revenues rose 24.1% year over year to $870 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $821 million. The impact of currency headwind on the top line was 2% ($12 million).

Revenues in the quarter benefitted from an accounting change in revenue recognition. However, despite this benefit, total revenues rose 20%.

Revenue in Detail

Soliris sales were up 17.7% to $783 million during the quarter. Sales included a benefit of $29 million from the accounting change in revenue recognition. While Strensiq contributed $74 million, up 124.2% year over year, Kanuma contributed $12 million, up considerably by 500% to quarterly revenues.

2017 Guidance

The company maintained its revenue guidance while raised its earnings guidance for 2017. The company expects adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $5.10 to $5.30 up from its previously guidance range of $5.00 to $5.25. It projects revenues to be in the band of $3.4 to $3.5 billion same as the previous expectations. In fact, revenues for Soliris are maintained in the range of $3.03 to $3.1 billion.

Pipeline Update

The company continues to progress with the candidates in its pipeline. Alexion filed regulatory submissions for Soliris to treat patients with refractory generalized myasthenia in both the U.S. and Europe in Jan 2017. The applications have been accepted for review by the FDA and validated by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

Alexion is evaluating Soliris in a couple of phase III studies – PREVENT, for the treatment of relapsing neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder and expects to complete enrollment in this study this year.

Our Take

Alexion exceeded both earnings and revenue estimates in the first quarter and also raised its earnings guidance. We expect growth at Alexion to continue being driven by Soliris. Other new products – Strensiq and Kanuma – are doing well and should boost revenues. Eventually, reducing the company’s dependence on Soliris for growth. We are also impressed by Alexion’s efforts to develop its pipeline.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last one month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

At this time, Alexion's stock has a great Growth Score of 'A', while it is lagging a bit on on the momentum front with 'B'. However, the stock was allocated a grade of 'C' on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'A'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Based on our scores, the stock is more suitable for growth investors than momentum and value investors.

Outlook

Interestingly, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.

Published in