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Innovation, Partnership Aid Genomic Health, Cost Woe Remains

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On Dec 18, we issued an updated research report on Genomic Health Inc , a global cancer research company with its focus on advanced molecular diagnostics.

Genomic Health has been trading above the broader industryover the past three months. The stock has rallied 16.2% compared with the broader industry’s 11.4% decline. In fact the stock has skyrocketed over the past week on a couple of developments.

The market is particularly optimistic about Genomic Health’s recently announced outcomes from a series of 10 trials, which underscore the efficiency of the Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence Score test and the Oncotype DX DCIS Score test for breast cancer. Notably, Ductal carcinoma in situ, also known as DCIS, is the most common type of non-invasive breast cancer.

We are also upbeat about the company’s multi-year research collaboration agreement with Janssen Pharmaceuticals to evaluate the Oncotype DX Genomic Prostate Score (“GPS”) test for its prostate cancer drug pipeline.  As part of the deal, Genomic Health will test samples from Janssen studies to examine the association of GPS results with clinical outcomes.

Overall, we are encouraged by the year-over-year rise in revenues, driven by solid performances in the United States and internationally. During the third quarter, international test volumes expanded 14%, representing 26% of the total test volumes in the period.

So far, Genomic Health has witnessed a healthy progress with regard to establishing coverage for its Oncotype DX breast cancer test. In 2018, Genomic Health expects several key catalysts to drive strong revenue growth. These catalysts include the anticipated implementation of both PAMA (Protecting Access to Medicare Act) reimbursement — at a higher level than the 2016 invasive breast rate — and AJCC (American Joint Committee on Cancer) staging criteria, which will be effective from January 2018.

Within the prostate cancer business, the Oncotype DX Genomic Prostate Score test received a positive Local Coverage Determination to expand Medicare coverage by Palmetto GBA. The company also made some positive developments for its Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence Score tests. In addition, it established a private coverage for the test in Germany.

On the flip side, revenues in the third quarter of 2017 lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate due to disruption from the hurricanes in certain regions of the United States (estimated to have affected domestic test volumes by approximately 3%). The company’s rising operating losses also continue to be a huge concern. In addition, its sole reliance on profitability of Breast Oncotype DX test is a challenge to cope with. Above all, management’s decision not to issue any guidance has been discouraging too as it failed to provide us with any definite visibility about the company’s upcoming performance.

Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Genomic Health has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). A few better-ranked medical stocks are athenahealth, Inc. , Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN - Free Report) and Luminex Corporation . Notably, athenahealth, andAlign Technology sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) while Luminexcarries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

athenahealthhas a long-term expected earnings growth rate of 22.3%. The stock has rallied roughly 17.1% over a year.

Align Technologyhas a long-term expected earnings growth rate of 28.9%. The stock has gained 134.5% in a year.

Luminex has a long-term expected earnings growth rate of 16.3%. The stock has gained 4.6% in the past three months.

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