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Spirit Airlines (SAVE) Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2017 earnings on Feb 6 before the market opens.

Last quarter, the company delivered a positive surprise of 4.4%. Moreover, the company has an impressive earnings history, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters with an average beat of 3.8%.

Let’s see, how things are shaping up for this earnings.

Factors at Play

Spirit Airlines’ bottom line in the fourth quarter is likely to be hurt by high costs just as the previous quarter. Fuel costs are anticipated to be substantially higher than the year-ago figure. Economic fuel cost per gallon is estimated at $1.97 in the to-be-reported period.

The company has also been struggling with capacity overexpansion woes, which might further hamper results in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Capacity is projected to rise approximately 17.6% in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the company’s total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) for the period is disappointing. TRASM is expected to be down approximately 2% in the quarter.

However, the company’s fleet modernization efforts are impressive. Also, it has been making constant efforts to expand its operations. The carrier’s efforts to reward shareholders via dividends and share buybacks are a further positive. Updates on the above issues are expected on fourth-quarter conference call.

Earnings Whispers

Per our proven model, a company needs to have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here as highlighted below.

Zacks ESP: Spirit Airlines has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 71 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Spirit Airlines carries a Zacks Rank of 3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against all Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in stocks from the broader Transportation sector may consider Ryder System, Inc. (R - Free Report) , Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings and Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD - Free Report) as these comprise the right combination of elements to beat estimates in the next releases this time around:

Ryder has an Earnings ESP of +0.30% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The company will report fourth-quarter results on Feb 16.

Atlas Air Worldwide has an Earnings ESP of +2.16% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. The company will announce fourth-quarter results on Feb 22. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Expeditors has an Earnings ESP of +1.30% and is a #2 Ranked player. The company is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 20.

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Ryder System, Inc. (R) - free report >>

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Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE) - free report >>

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