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Is Alphabet (GOOGL) Set to Miss Q1 Earnings Estimates?

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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL - Free Report) saw its stock price climb over 3% on Tuesday as we inch closer to the release of the internet giant’s first quarter financial results. This climb marked the second day of gains, which might signal that investors are confident about Google’s parent company ahead of earnings. Let’s take a look to see if they should be.

Prior to Tuesday’s gains, shares of Alphabet had been down roughly 10% over the last 12 weeks. The company’s recent woes can be attributed to the overall market downturn as well as worries that stricter government regulations could be headed its way in the wake of Facebook’s privacy scandal.

These larger market forces aren’t likely to impact Alphabet’s first quarter results, nor will any possible government regulations greatly harm Google’s hugely successful business model in the near-term.

With that said, investors should still look to see what they should expect from Alphabet in the first quarter because lower-than-expected Q1 earnings results could extend GOOGL’s current decline.

Q1 Outlook

Alphabet’s quarterly revenues are projected to climb by 20.7% to reach $24.29 billion, based on our current Zacks Consensus Estimates. Meanwhile, the tech powerhouse is expected to see its earnings expand by a similar 19.2% to hit $9.21 per share. 

Cleary, Alphabet is projected to report strong quarterly growth once again. However, investors still don't have any idea if Alphabet is set to beat its bottom line estimates. This is important because earnings beats can often lead to rising share prices in the immediate aftermath of a quarterly financial release.

Luckily, Zacks Premium customers can utilize the Earnings ESP Screener in order to search for stocks that are expected to surprise, either way.

This is done because, generally speaking, when an analyst posts an estimate right before an earnings release, it means that they have fresh information which could potentially be more accurate than what analysts thought about a company two or three months ago.

A positive Earnings ESP paired with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better ranking helps us feel confident about the potential for an earnings beat. In fact, our 10-year backtest has revealed that this methodology has accurately produced a positive surprise 70% of the time.

In contrast, a stock with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or worse, coupled with a negative Earnings ESP, is one that we typically want to avoid during earnings season.

Alphabet is currently a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and sports an Earnings ESP of -6.69%. The company’s Most Accurate Estimate—the representation of the most recent analyst sentiment—calls for earnings of $8.59 per share, which comes in 62 cents below our current consensus estimate.

Therefore, investors should consider Alphabet a stock that could very well fall short of earnings estimates. It is also worth noting, that despite its massive growth, Alphabet has a mixed earnings surprise history—beating or matching earnings estimates just six times in the previous 17 quarters.

Alphabet is scheduled to release its first quarter financial results after market close on Monday, April 23.

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