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Columbia Sportswear (COLM) Q1 Earnings to Grow Y/Y: Here's Why

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Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2018 results on Apr 26. This marketer and distributor of outdoor and active lifestyle apparel and accessories boasts a splendid earnings and sales surprise history, which has also helped its shares rally about 35% in a year, surpassing the industry’s growth of 28.2%. Well, let’s see if Columbia Sportswear growth drivers can help it maintain its robust record this time as well.





 

Broad-Based Strength & DTC Business to Drive Results

We expect Columbia Sportswear to continue gaining from its brand enhancing initiatives, as well as solid geographic reach. Over the past year, Columbia Sportswear’s brand team installed and renovated more than 300 shop-in-shops in key partner store locations. The company’s prAna brand is also attracting huge number of consumers. Further the company expects continued growth from its SOREL brand through constant upgradation and effective management strategies. Further, Columbia Sportswear’s widespread global reach provides the company a solid business foundation and enables it to seek new opportunities to enhance profitability. Although the company has significant potential in a variety of markets, we believe the largest opportunity lies in China — given the region’s strength in digital wholesale and e-commerce channels.

 

The company is also well on track with its Project Connect program which focuses on connecting consumers, wholesale customers and international distributors with its manufacturing partners and with the employees around the globe. The project is expected to have a wide-spread impact across the company’s operations and includes a number of initiatives to enhance revenues, capture cost of sales efficiencies, improve the marketing process and lower SG&A costs. The initiative is anticipated to benefit the company’s direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels.

We believe that these efforts and solid DTC operations aided Columbia Sportswear in the fourth quarter of 2017, wherein it marked its 20th and fourth straight quarter of earnings and sales beat, respectively. Further, the top and bottom lines grew year over year for the fifth and second consecutive time. Results in the quarter were backed by enhanced margins, along with strong sales across all regions and most brands, with the exception of Global Mountain Hardwear.

Expectations in Numbers

Columbia Sportswear delivered record net sales, operating income and gross margin in 2017, keeping management encouraged about another year of top and bottom-line growth. Given these factors and focus on strategic initiatives, management issued a favorable outlook for 2018, wherein net sales are expected to grow on the back of broad-based regional strength and improved performance across most brands. Clearly, these factors give out positive signals for the quarter to be reported.

Evidently, the consensus marks for first-quarter sales from Canada, EMEA, LAAP and United States are pegged at $38.7 million, $65 million, $125 million and $$354 million, reflecting upsides of 4.8%, 18.2%, 5.9% and 6.3%, from their respective year-ago reported sales figures. Coming to brands, analysts polled by Zacks expect sales for prAna, Columbia, Mountain Hardwear and Sorel to rise 2.6%, 4%, 11.9% and 8.8% to $39.7 million, $467 million, $31 million and $29.6 million, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for overall sales is currently pegged at nearly $581 million, up from $544 million reported in the first quarter of 2017.

Also, management expects results in 2018 to gain from lower effective tax rate — thanks to the recent tax reforms, which can have a favorable impact on the first quarter too. The Zacks analysts expect earnings for the quarter to surge nearly 15.7% year over year to 59 cents. Notably, the estimate has gone up by a notch over the past 30 days. That said, we remain encouraged about Columbia Sportswear’s upcoming results

What the Zacks Model Unveils

To top it, our proven model shows that Columbia Sportswear is likely to beat bottom-line estimates this quarter. For this to happen, a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Markedly, Columbia Sportswear’s Zacks Rank #2 and Earnings ESP of +1.32% make us reasonable confident of earnings beat.

Other Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post earnings beat:

Boston Beer (SAM - Free Report) , a Zacks #3 Ranked stock, has an Earnings ESP of +35.65%.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ManpowerGroup (MAN - Free Report) , a #3 Ranked company, has an Earnings ESP of +1.94%.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

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