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Check Out Deckers (DECK) Probability to Beat in Q1 Earnings

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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2019 results on Jul 26. In the trailing four quarters, this Goleta, CA-based footwear and apparel retailer has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 70%. Investors are counting on another beat by Deckers in the to-be-reported quarter. Let’s delve deeper and take a look at the factors that will be influencing the results.

How Are Top & Bottom Line Estimates Faring?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter under review is pegged at a loss of $1.42 compared with a loss of $1.28 reported in the year-ago quarter. We note that the Zacks Consensus Estimate has been stable in the last 30 days. Analysts polled by Zacks now project revenues of $228.9 million, up approximately 9% from the year-ago quarter.

If all goes well, this will be the sixth straight quarter that the company will surpass the Zacks Consensus Estimate for both the top and bottom lines.

Here Are the Deciding Factors

Deckers is targeting profitable markets and remains focused on product innovations as well as store augmentation plan. Further, the company’s focus on expanding brand assortments, bringing more innovative line of products, targeting consumers through marketing and optimizing omni-channel distribution bode well.

In keeping with the changing trends, Deckers has made substantial investments to strengthen online presence and opening smaller concept omni-channel outlets. Additionally, the company has undertaken strategic initiatives in an effort to drive long-term growth. Its store-fleet optimization plan focuses on striking the right balance between digital and physical stores.

Management had earlier guided first-quarter net sales in the range of $225-$235 million compared with $209.7 million reported in the year-ago period. The company had forecasted loss in the range of approximately $1.41-$1.50.

Industry experts remain concerned about Deckers' over-reliance on the UGG brand. In the event of stagnation or decline of UGG sales growth, the company's overall results will be adversely affected. This is because the percentage of contribution from the company’s other brands are too minimal to offset any slowdown in UGG sales.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sanuk and Teva brands are $26.2 million and $37.1 million, respectively, almost flat year over year. However, sales from UGG brand are expected to come in at $123 million, up 7.2% year over year.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Deckers Outdoor Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Deckers Outdoor Corporation Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils?

Our proven model shows that Deckers is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both — a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP — for this to happen. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Deckers has an Earnings ESP of +0.47% and a Zacks Rank #1. This makes us reasonably confident that it is likely to outperform estimates.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Urban Outfitters (URBN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.46% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Foot Locker, Inc. (FL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.51% and a Zacks Rank #2.

DSW Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +2.86% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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