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Autodesk (ADSK) Q2 Earnings: Is a Disappointment in Store?

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Autodesk (ADSK - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter fiscal 2019 results on Aug 23.

In the last reported quarter, the company reported non-GAAP earnings of 6 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3 cents.

Notably, the company has a positive earnings surprise track record. It beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average positive surprise of 39.84%.

Revenues of $559.4 million matched the consensus mark and increased nearly 15.3% year over year.

For second-quarter fiscal 2019, Autodesk expects revenues in the range of $595-$605 million. Non-GAAP earnings are anticipated in the range of 13-16 cents per share.
 

Autodesk, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Autodesk, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Autodesk, Inc. Quote

 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues and earnings currently stand at $601.3 million and 17 cents.

Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Key Factors

Autodesk’s results are expected to be negatively impacted by lower net subscription addition due to consolidation of subscriptions owing to upgrade to Collections and new packaging for BIM 360.

Moreover, an anticipated increase in Autodesk’s expenses due to an increase in hiring is expected to hurt profitability.

Nevertheless, strength in its core business, which comprises maintenance, product subscription and Enterprise Business Agreement (EBA) subscriptions, is expected to drive Autodesk’s top-line growth.

Autodesk is gaining from robust growth in product subscription. The company’s broad product portfolio continues to generate new customers in both domestic and overseas markets.

The company’s growing maintenance to subscription program coupled with increasing adoption of Collections is a tailwind. Further, increasing spend by customers of Collections is leading to an increase in the company’s average recurring revenues (ARR) and average revenue per subscription (ARPS).

For the second quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARR is $2.28 billion, up 24.7% year over year.

Autodesk is also benefiting from its investment in digital infrastructure. The company’s e-store generated nearly 20% of products subscription sales in the last reported quarter.

Additionally, growing momentum of BIM 360 and Fusion tools is a positive. The BIM 360 product has gained significant traction in recent times. The solution is rapidly replacing legacy document management tools as well as preconstruction planning software.

What Our Model Says

According to the Zacks model, a company with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) has a good chance of beating estimates if it also has a positive Earnings ESP. The Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) are best avoided. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Autodesk has an Earnings ESP of +6.06% but a Zacks Rank #4. Consequently, we are unable to predict whether the company can deliver a positive surprise this quarter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are three stocks you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat in the to-be reported quarter.

Foot Locker (FL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.55% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Big Lots has an Earnings ESP of +4.48% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Hibbett Sports has an Earnings ESP of +57.90% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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