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Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2018 earnings on Oct 24, after market close.

In the second quarter of 2018, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 16.5%. Moreover, the bottom line improved on a year-over-year basis despite high fuel costs. Allegiant also performed well on the revenue front, courtesy of a robust increase in passenger revenues.

Additionally, the company has an impressive earnings surprise history. It surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 21.1%.

Given this backdrop, let’s delve deep to unearth the factors that are likely to impact the carrier’s third-quarter 2018 results.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Allegiant’s top line is likely to benefit from robust passenger revenues, backed by solid demand for air travel. The company expects to carry 15% more passengers in the third quarter of 2018. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter passenger revenues is pegged at $354 million.

However, we expect high costs (labor and fuel) to hurt the bottom line in the quarter to be reported. Escalating fuel costs, expected at $2.41 per gallon, do not bode well for the stock. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fuel cost per gallon (system-wide) is pegged at $2.45, mirroring an increase from $2.38 registered in the second quarter of 2018.

Moreover, woes related to capacity expansion are major concerns. For the soon-to-be-reported quarter, the company anticipates average seat miles (scheduled and system) to increase in the range of 13-15%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter capacity is pegged at 3,640 million, reflecting an increase from 3,220 million registered in the third quarter of 2017.

Allegiant Travel Company Price and EPS Surprise

 

Allegiant Travel Company Price and EPS Surprise | Allegiant Travel Company Quote

What Does Our Model Say?

Our proven model too does not show conclusively that Allegiant will beat estimates in third-quarter 2018. This is because a stock needs to have both — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — for this to happen. However, that is not the case as highlighted below.

Earnings ESP: Allegianthas an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.02 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Allegiant carries a Zacks Rank #3. However, this alone is not enough to secure an earnings beat.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Ranks #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revision.

Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may consider Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) , Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL - Free Report) and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW - Free Report) as these stocks possess the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat in their next releases.

Union Pacific has an Earnings ESP of +0.57% and a Zacks Rank #2.  The company will report third-quarter earnings on Oct 25. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Old Dominion Freight Line has an Earnings ESP of +0.69% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company will release third-quarter 2018 results on Oct 25.

C.H. Robinson has an Earnings ESP of +0.56% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company will announce third-quarter financial figures on Oct 30.

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