Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Ally Financial (ALLY) Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY - Free Report) is slated to announce third-quarter 2018 results on Oct 25, before the market opens. Its revenues and earnings are projected to grow year over year.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited from a marginal increase in revenues and lower provisions. However, an increase in expenses was the headwind.

Moreover, the company boasts an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 13.2%.

Ally Financial Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
 

Ally Financial Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Ally Financial Inc. Quote

Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts for the third quarter, let’s check the factors that are expected to impact Q3 results.

Factors to Influence Q3 Results

Management expects used vehicle prices to fall. Thus, lease revenues are projected to decline during the to-be-reported quarter, owing to a smaller lease portfolio as well as lower used vehicle values. Since the company primarily deals in auto loans, this might have a marginal adverse effect on its earnings in the quarter under review.

Nonetheless, given the higher interest rates and Ally Financial’s efforts to diversify into the mortgage business, net interest income (NII) is expected to increase in the third quarter.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for insurance premiums and service revenue earned is $260 million for the third quarter, reflecting sequential rise of 8.8%. The consensus estimate for net gain on mortgage and automotive loans is $1 million, stable sequentially.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income shows that this component is likely to increase. Its estimate of $381 million for the third quarter represents growth of 4.7% sequentially.

Ally Financial has been making efforts to grow inorganically, introduce products and diversify operations. Given these initiatives, the company is likely to witness an increase in operating expenses during the quarter under review.

Here is what our quantitative model predicts:

Chances of Ally Financial beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the third quarter are low. This is because it doesn’t have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — to be confident of an earnings surprise call.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Ally Financial has an Earnings ESP of -0.99%.

Zacks Rank: Ally Financial currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. While this increases the predictive power of ESP, we also need a positive Earnings ESP to be sure of an earnings beat.

While the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of 80 cents for the to-be-reported quarter has remained unchanged over the past seven days, it reflects a year-over-year improvement of 23.1%.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales for the third quarter is pegged at $1.48 billion, which reflects nearly 1.5% year-over-year growth.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks that you may want to consider, as according to our model, these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.68% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is slated to release results on Oct 25.

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW - Free Report) is also scheduled to release results on Oct 25. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO - Free Report) is slated to release results on Oct 31. It has an Earnings ESP of +17.30% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Today's Stocks from Zacks' Hottest Strategies

It's hard to believe, even for us at Zacks. But while the market gained +21.9% in 2017, our top stock-picking screens have returned +115.0%, +109.3%, +104.9%, +98.6%, and +67.1%.

And this outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon. Over the years it has been remarkably consistent. From 2000 - 2017, the composite yearly average gain for these strategies has beaten the market more than 19X over. Maybe even more remarkable is the fact that we're willing to share their latest stocks with you without cost or obligation.

See Them Free>>

Published in