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Here's What to Expect from Twitter's (TWTR) Q3 Earnings

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Shares of Twitter opened higher Wednesday one day before the embattled social media company is set to report its third-quarter financial results. With that said, TWTR stock is down roughly 30% over the last three months, so let’s see what to expect from Twitter’s Q3 earnings Thursday.

Quick Overview

Twitter has suffered recently on the back of increased worries about potential government intervention due to the platform’s role in the spread of misinformation and “fake news.” Twitter, along with Facebook , has upped its fight against fake news and fake accounts, especially as we near the midterm elections.

Twitter’s ability to clean up its platform could theoretically make it more attractive in the long-run. Yet, the process appears as though it will hurt Twitter’s user totals now. The company’s global monthly active user base is expected to be almost flat from the year-ago period and down sequentially, based on our NFM estimates. Plus, Twitter's U.S. MAU’s are projected to fall from the same period in 2017. 

Q3 Outlook

Moving on, Twitter’s Q3 revenues are projected to jump by roughly 19.4% to reach $703.72 million, based on our current Zacks Consensus Estimate. Meanwhile, Twitter’s adjusted quarterly earnings are expected to surge 40% to reach $0.14 per share.

Now it’s time to see if Twitter has a chance to top our quarterly earnings estimate as that could help TWTR stock perform better, at least in the near-term. And we can turn to our exclusive Earnings ESP figure to do so.

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter. The Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change.

This is done because, generally speaking, when an analyst posts an estimate right before an earnings release, it means that they have fresh information which could potentially be more accurate than what analysts thought about a company two or three months ago.

A positive Earnings ESP paired with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better ranking helps us feel confident about the potential for an earnings beat. In fact, our 10-year backtest has revealed that this methodology has accurately produced a positive surprise 70% of the time.

Twitter is currently as a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) that sports an Earnings ESP -19.90%. Unfortunately, this means that our model is inconclusive. Investors should note, however, that Twitter has a strong earnings history, which includes almost four straight years of bottom-line beats.

Twitter is scheduled to release its Q3 financial results before the market opens on Thursday, October 25.

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