Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Navigant (NCI) Down 4.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Read MoreHide Full Article

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Navigant (NCI) . Shares have lost about 4.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Navigant due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Navigant Lags Q4 Earnings and Revenues Estimates

Navigant Consulting fourth-quarter 2018 adjusted earnings per share (from continuing operations) of 10 cents lagged the consensus mark by 3 cents but came ahead of the year-ago figure by a penny. The bottom line benefited from lower net interest costs and lower share count, which offset lower operating profitability.

Total revenues of $193.21 million increased 9.1% from the prior-year quarter. Revenues before reimbursements (RBR) of $174.63 million missed estimates by $0.3 million but improved 11.5% year over year. The top line benefitted from robust performance of the Health System Solutions (“HSS”) joint venture and continued solid demand in the Energy segment, which partially offset, slower conversion of engagements in Healthcare consulting.

Revenues by Segments

Energy segment’sRBR increased 12.7% year over year to $34.6 millionon the back of strong demand across the segment.

Financial Services Advisory and Compliance’s (“FSAC”) RBR increased 7.1% year over year to $34.5 million. The segment benefitted from the ramp-up of the new managed services engagement, which began in the third quarter of 2018.

Healthcare segment’s RBR increased 12.5% year over year to $105.5 million, driven by contribution from the HSS joint venture with Baptist Health South Florida, which partially offset prolonged softness in certain areas of Healthcare consulting.

EBITDA Performance

Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations in the fourth quarter was $12.8 million compared with $15.2 million in the prior-year quarter. The decline was due to higher-than-usual year-end pause in the FSAC segment, weak results in Healthcare consulting, and higher general and administrative costs.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

Navigant exited fourth-quarter 2018 with cash and cash equivalents of $206.92 million compared with $277.43 million at the end of the prior quarter.

The company used $5.8 million of net cash in operating activities in the reported quarter. Adjusted free cash flow was $9.62 million.

During fourth-quarter 2018, Navigant repurchased 2.5 million shares at aggregate costs of $57.1 million and average price of $22.83 per share.

2019 Guidance

Navigant provided its guidance for 2019. It expects revenues to be $810-$840 million. RBR is expected to be between $735 million and $765 million.

Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between 85 cents and $1.00.The Zacks Consensus Estimate of 95 cents lies within the currently guided range.

Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be $70-$80 million. Adjusted free cash flow is anticipated between $43 million and $53 million. Capital expenditure is estimated to be around $20 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -60% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Navigant has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Navigant has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Published in