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Will Gilead (GILD) Beat Q1 Earnings Despite Coronavirus Mayhem?
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Biotech major Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2020 results on Apr 30, after market close.
Gilead has a disappointing track record, with earnings beating estimates in two of the last four quarters and the missed in the other two, the average negative surprise being 2.49%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s missed expectations by 22.62%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Gilead this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Gilead is +20.00% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.40, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.68.
Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Factors at Play
Strong performance of the HIV franchise led to better-than-expected sales in the fourth quarter, a trend that most likely continued in the first quarter.
The HIV franchise’s performance has likely been driven by the continued momentum of tenofovir alafenamide-based products — Genvoya, Descovy and Odefsey. Biktarvy’s uptake has been phenomenal in 2019 and its sales are likely to have boosted the top line in the first quarter as well. Encouraging initial uptake of Descovy for the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) setting is likely to have benefited the top line, further. However, stiff competition is likely to have limited market share gains. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Genvoya and Biktarvy is projected at $859 million and $1.4 billion, respectively.
HCV sales are likely to have declined in the first quarter, a trend continuing for many quarters.
CAR-T therapy, Yescarta (axicabtageneciloleucel), generated $122 million in sales during the fourth quarter of 2019 and first-quarter sales are expected to have experienced a sequential increase, driven by a higher number of therapies provided to patients and its continued expansion in Europe.
Apart from the regular top and bottom-line numbers, we expect investors to focus on the company’s pipeline updates, particularly on experimental antiviral, remdesivir, for COVID-19.
Earlier, the company announced promising results from a cohort analysis of 53 patients hospitalized with severe complications of COVID-19, who were treated with remdesivir on an individual compassionate-use basis. The majority of patients in this international cohort demonstrated clinical improvement and no new safety signals were identified with the treatment. However, compassionate use data have limitations and multiple phase III studies are ongoing to determine the safety and efficacy of remdesivir in the treatment of COVID-19.
Currently, Gilead is conducting two phase III studies on remdesivir — the SIMPLE studies — in countries with a higher prevalence of COVID-19. An update on the studies is being keenly awaited by investors.
Gilead did not provide any quarterly guidance.
Share Price Performance
Gilead’s stock has lost 19.7% in the year so far against the industry's growth of 1.4%. Shares declined on Apr 23 on reports of remdesivir failing in a randomized study in China. Hence, updates on the same are expected when the company reports first-quarter earnings.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Glaxo (GSK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.19% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Apr 29.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on May 6.
More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone!
It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 27 billion devices in just 3 years, creating a $1.7 trillion market.
Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 6 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2020.
Image: Bigstock
Will Gilead (GILD) Beat Q1 Earnings Despite Coronavirus Mayhem?
Biotech major Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2020 results on Apr 30, after market close.
Gilead has a disappointing track record, with earnings beating estimates in two of the last four quarters and the missed in the other two, the average negative surprise being 2.49%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s missed expectations by 22.62%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Gilead Sciences, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Gilead Sciences, Inc. Quote
Why a Likely Positive Surprise
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Gilead this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Gilead is +20.00% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.40, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.68.
Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Factors at Play
Strong performance of the HIV franchise led to better-than-expected sales in the fourth quarter, a trend that most likely continued in the first quarter.
The HIV franchise’s performance has likely been driven by the continued momentum of tenofovir alafenamide-based products — Genvoya, Descovy and Odefsey. Biktarvy’s uptake has been phenomenal in 2019 and its sales are likely to have boosted the top line in the first quarter as well. Encouraging initial uptake of Descovy for the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) setting is likely to have benefited the top line, further. However, stiff competition is likely to have limited market share gains. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Genvoya and Biktarvy is projected at $859 million and $1.4 billion, respectively.
HCV sales are likely to have declined in the first quarter, a trend continuing for many quarters.
CAR-T therapy, Yescarta (axicabtageneciloleucel), generated $122 million in sales during the fourth quarter of 2019 and first-quarter sales are expected to have experienced a sequential increase, driven by a higher number of therapies provided to patients and its continued expansion in Europe.
Apart from the regular top and bottom-line numbers, we expect investors to focus on the company’s pipeline updates, particularly on experimental antiviral, remdesivir, for COVID-19.
Earlier, the company announced promising results from a cohort analysis of 53 patients hospitalized with severe complications of COVID-19, who were treated with remdesivir on an individual compassionate-use basis. The majority of patients in this international cohort demonstrated clinical improvement and no new safety signals were identified with the treatment. However, compassionate use data have limitations and multiple phase III studies are ongoing to determine the safety and efficacy of remdesivir in the treatment of COVID-19.
Currently, Gilead is conducting two phase III studies on remdesivir — the SIMPLE studies — in countries with a higher prevalence of COVID-19. An update on the studies is being keenly awaited by investors.
Gilead did not provide any quarterly guidance.
Share Price Performance
Gilead’s stock has lost 19.7% in the year so far against the industry's growth of 1.4%. Shares declined on Apr 23 on reports of remdesivir failing in a randomized study in China. Hence, updates on the same are expected when the company reports first-quarter earnings.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Alexion has an Earnings ESP of +0.83% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release results on May 6. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Glaxo (GSK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.19% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Apr 29.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on May 6.
More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone!
It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 27 billion devices in just 3 years, creating a $1.7 trillion market.
Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 6 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2020.
Click here for the 6 trades >>