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Is a Beat Likely for Concho Resources (CXO) in Q1 Earnings?

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Concho Resources Inc.  is scheduled to release first-quarter 2020 results on Thursday Apr 30, after the closing bell.

The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is pegged at 72 cents per share on revenues of $1.10 billion. There has been no change in estimates for the bottom line over the past 7 days.

Against this backdrop, let’s analyze the factors that might have impacted the company’s performance in the March quarter.

Factors at Play

Concho Resources is an independent oil and gas explorer and producer with two major areas of interest, such as output growth and oil price realizations. The second key component of the company (including derivatives) is hinting at positive vibes for its upcoming quarterly release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average crude prices with derivatives implies a rise from the year-ago reported figure, which in turn, indicates a possible increase in the company’s profitability for the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the average crude price (with hedges) stands at $55 per barrel, hinting at 11% growth from the year-earlier reported number. The consensus estimate for the company’s overall production price is pegged at $39.58 per barrels of oil equivalent (again with derivatives), suggesting an increase from the year-ago reported price of $37.34.

Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total production volumes is pegged at average 29,231 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (MBoe), almost flat with the year-ago reported figure.

Importantly, Concho Resources’ output is heavily oil-weighted with liquids accounting for around 63% of its total production. Therefore, even if the company’s first-quarter total production remains unchanged from the year-ago quarter’s level, the ‘oilier’ nature of its volume mix along with robust commodity price realization and derivatives is likely to boost its upcoming earnings results.

What Does Our Model Say?

The proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for Concho Resources this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Concho Resources has an Earnings ESP of +3.48%.

Zacks Rank: Concho Resources carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings

In the last reported quarter, Concho Resources reported net income per share (excluding special items) of $1.03, ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 77 cents as well as the prior-year period’s earnings of 94 cents. This outperformance can be primarily attributed to better-than-anticipated production volumes. Precisely, the upstream player’s output of 337,288 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d) surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 325,265 Boe/d. The Permian-focused player generated revenues of $1.2 billion, topping the consensus mark by 7.8% and also rising 16.8% from the year-ago level.

As far as earnings surprises are concerned, this Midland, TX-based oil and gas producer missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters while beating the same in the remaining one, the average positive surprise being 4.52%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Concho Resources Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Concho Resources Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Concho Resources Inc. price-eps-surprise | Concho Resources Inc. Quote

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other stocks worth considering from the energy space, which per our model have the perfect combination of elements to also beat on earnings this reporting cycle:

Transocean Ltd. (RIG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.56% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to release earnings on Apr 29. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.90% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Apr 30.

Laredo Petroleum, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +2.50% and is Zacks #3 Ranked. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 6.

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