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Novavax (NVAX) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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We expect investors to focus on Novavax, Inc.’s (NVAX - Free Report) development plans for its coronavirus vaccine candidate, NVX-CoV2373, when it reports first-quarter 2020 earnings results.

The company’s performance over the last four quarters has been dismal with the company missing expectations thrice and beating the same once, the average negative surprise being 0.56%. In the last reported quarter, Novavax witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 4.63%.

Shares of Novavax have skyrocketed 398.3% so far this year compared with the industry’s increase of 3.3%.


Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

Factors to Note

Novavax’s portfolio is currently devoid of any approved product. As a result, the company is yet to generate any revenues from product sales.

Notably, in March, Novavax announced positive top-line data from a pivotal phase III study on its nanoparticle seasonal influenza vaccine candidate, NanoFlu, for adult patients aged 65 years and above.

The study evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of NanoFlu using Novavax's proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant in senior patients aged 65 years and above compared to the quadrivalent formulation of Sanofi’s (SNY - Free Report) influenza vaccine, Fluzone.

The study and development activities related to NanoFlu are likely to have escalated operating expense in the to-be-reported quarter.

Novavax plans to submit a biologics license application (BLA) for NanoFLu using the FDA’s accelerated approval pathway. We expect an update on the same on the upcoming investors call.

Recently, Novavax was in the spotlight following its launched efforts to develop a novel vaccine against the coronavirus disease. To this end, in March, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness (CEPI) awarded an initial funding of $4 million to support Novavax’s efforts for developing a COVID-19 vaccine.

Earlier this month, the company announced that it plans to initiate a phase I study on its coronavirus vaccine candidate, NVX-CoV2373. The study is expected to begin next month.

We expect management to provide a detailed updated on the same during the first-quarter earnings call.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Novavax this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive surprise. But this is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Novavax has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 65 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Novavax carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Novavax, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Stocks to Consider

Here are some biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release results on May 6. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals has an Earnings ESP of +1.08% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is scheduled to release results on May 6.

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