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Grubhub (GRUB) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Grubhub is set to report first-quarter 2020 results on May 6.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues currently stands at $350.2 million, indicating growth of 8.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Moreover, the consensus mark for loss has widened a penny to 2 cents per share over the past 30 days. Grubhub reported earnings of 30 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Notably, the company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, matched the mark in one and beat the same on the remaining occasion, the average negative surprise being 14.2%.
 

Grubhub Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Grubhub Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Grubhub Inc. price-eps-surprise | Grubhub Inc. Quote

 

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Grubhub Raises Q1 View

Grubhub now expects first-quarter revenues and adjusted EBITDA to be slightly above the respective midpoints of the guidance it issued on Feb 5.

The company’s earlier revenue estimate was between $350 million and $370 million, indicating a mid-point of $360 million. Adjusted EBITDA was anticipated to be $15-$25 million.

Management stated that overall growth was hurt by the coronavirus outbreak in New York, which was the worst hit among the metros. Notably, the company’s corporate business, accounting for mid-single digit percentage of its fourth-quarter orders, was hit hard as almost all its corporate clients started working remotely.

Management now expects first-quarter Daily Average Grubs (DAGs) to be flat year over year.

Factors to Consider

Grubhub’s significant exposure to small and medium businesses (SMBs) is a headwind as coronavirus-led lockdowns and physical distancing norms is expected to have negatively impacted this cohort considerably.

Moreover, unrelenting competition in the U.S. online food delivery market from the likes of DoorDash, UBER Eats and Postmates is expected to have eaten into Grubhub’s market share in the to-be-reported quarter.

This stiff rivalry is likely to have affected Grubhub’s Daily Average Grubs (DAGs) too.

Nevertheless, the rapidly-growing active diner base, driven by acquisitions and partnerships with the likes of McDonalds’, Yum Brands!, Shake Shack, Blue Apron, Dunkin' Brands Group, is expected to have aided the company’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter.

Grubhub is also expected to have benefited from its efforts to enhance the delivery network and strengthen alliances with new, quality-focused restaurant partners, which might reflect on its gross food sales.

What Our Model Indicates

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Grubhub has an Earnings ESP of -125.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering from the sector as our model shows these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:

Wayfair (W - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.69% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Take Two Interactive (TTWO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.24% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Activision Blizzard has an Earnings ESP of +10.39% and a Zacks Rank of 2.


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