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How Severely will Coronavirus Affect Hyatt's (H) Q1 Earnings?

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Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2020 financial numbers on May 6, 2020, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 135%. Notably, the bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing 16 quarters.

Q1 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter is pegged at a loss of 24 cents, against earnings of 45 cents in the prior-year quarter. The company’s earnings estimates have witnessed sharp downward revisions over the past 60 days, reflecting analyst concern regarding the stock.

For revenues, the consensus mark stands at $942.3 million, suggesting a decline of 24.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Q1 Preliminary Results Reflect Dismal Performance

Hyatt’s results in the quarter to be reported are likely to reflect negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic. As of Apr 15, nearly 35% of hotels have been shut down globally. The company recently reported first-quarter 2020 preliminary results. The company’s occupancy and RevPAR have been impacted significantly by the coronavirus outbreak.

The company expects first-quarter 2020 revenues in the range of $980 million to $1 billion, down from $1.2 billion in the prior-year quarter. The company anticipates comparable system-wide RevPAR to decline 28.1% in the first quarter. Comparable system-wide RevPAR was up 1.2% in January. However, the metric witnessed a sharp decline of 10.6% and 66.6% in February and March, respectively, on account of the coronavirus outbreak. Comparable owned and leased hotels RevPAR is expected to decrease 25.8% owing to sharp decline in March.

High Costs to Hurt Earnings

High operating costs on account of the coronavirus pandemic are likely to get reflected in the  first-quarter results. The company also anticipates net income and adjusted Earnings Before Interest Expense, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) to have declined materially in the first quarter due to unexpected increase in expenses and sharp decline in revenues.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

What Does the Zacks Model Say

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Hyatt this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here. 

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Hyatt has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of -45.67%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stock With Favorable Combinations 

Here are a few stocks from the Consumer Discretionary space that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

GP Strategies Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +58.33% and a Zacks Rank #3, at present.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.00% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Activision Blizzard, Inc. currently has an Earnings ESP of +10.39% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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