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Why Is Humana (HUM) Up 5.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Humana (HUM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Humana due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Humana's Earnings Beat Estimates in Q1, Improve Y/Y

Humana's first-quarter 2020 operating earnings per share of $5.40 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.6%. Moreover, the bottom line improved 20.5% year over year.

This upside can primarily be attributed to higher revenues witnessed by the company.

Operational Update

Revenues of $18.9 billion were up nearly 17.6% year over year. Moreover, the top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3% on the back of higher premium revenues from improved membership and per member premiums in its Medicare Advantage and state-based contract businesses.

Adjusted consolidated pre-tax income of $1 billion increased 28.9% year over year on the back of solid segmental results, led by a robust Medicare Advantage.

Benefit ratio contracted 110 points (bps) to 85.1%.

Operating cost ratio expanded 90 bps to 11.3%.

Segmental Results

Retail


Revenues from the Retail segment were $16.76 billion, up 20% year over year. This can primarily be attributed to higher premiums owing to membership strength and higher per member premiums in its Medicare Advantage and state-based contract businesses.

Benefit ratio of 86.6% contracted 170 bps year over year on the back of reinstatement of the non-deductible health insurance industry fee in 2020, engagement of Medicare Advantage members, continued shift in Medicare membership mix and an improved Medicare Advantage membership, etc.
The segment’s operating cost ratio of 9.2% expanded 100 bps year over year due to reinstatement of the non-deductible health insurance industry fee in 2020.

Group and Specialty

Revenues from the Group and Specialty segment were $1.87 billion, down 1.1% from the prior-year quarter due to a reduction in fully-insured group commercial membership.

Benefit ratio expanded 270 bps year over year to 79.1% due to the impact of deliberate pricing and benefit design changes in the commercial business as well as weekday seasonality including the leap-year impact on the first quarter.

Operating cost ratio expanded 120 bps year over year to 23.1%.

Healthcare Services

Revenues of $7.09 billion increased 16% year over year, primarily owing to Medicare Advantage membership growth, better pharmacy revenues on the company’s allowance of early prescription refills and additional pharmacy revenues associated with the Enclara Healthcare buyout.

Operating cost ratio contracted 60 bps year over year to 96%.

Financial Update

As of Mar 31, 2020, the company had cash, cash equivalents and investment securities of $17.55 billion, up 14% from the level at 2019 end.
Debt-to-total capitalization as of Mar 31, 2020 was 39.2%, expanding 720 bps from the level as of Dec 31, 2019.

For the first quarter, cash flows provided by operating activities came at $474 million, down 47.1% year over year.

Capital Deployment

The company did not complete any open-market transactions in the quarter under review.

It paid out cash dividends worth $73 million in the quarter under review. In February 2020, it declared a cash dividend of 62.5 cents per share, payable Apr 24, 2020 to its shareholders of record as of Mar 31, 2020. This new dividend indicates a hike of 14% from the previously announced payout.

2020 Guidance

After first-quarter results, the company revised its 2019 guidance. Adjusted EPS is now expected in the range of $18.25-$18.75. The full-year individual Medicare Advantage membership is anticipated to be around 300,000-350,000 members.

Humana reaffirmed its expectations for group Medicare Advantage net membership gains. It now expects a year-over-year increase of 90,000 members in 2020. For its stand-alone PDP business, it anticipates a membership decline of 550,000.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted 7.79% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Humana has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Humana has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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