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American Public Education (APEI) Up 1.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for American Public Education (APEI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is American Public Education due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

American Public’s Q1 Earnings Miss, Q2 Enrollment Up 56%

American Public Education, Inc. reported mixed results in first-quarter 2020, wherein earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while revenues beat the same. Notably, both the metrics were within management’s respective guided ranges.

Notably, it generated record spring-term enrollment despite coronavirus woes. The company registered nearly 56% growth in new student enrollment and a 14% increase in total student enrollment for the second quarter.

Delving Deeper

The company’s adjusted earnings of 16 cents per share lagged the consensus estimate of 17 cents by 5.9%. The reported figure also decreased a whopping 50% on a year-over-year basis.

Total revenues of $74.6 million, which topped the consensus mark of $74.2 million by 0.6%, increased 1.6% from the year-ago period. The upside was mainly driven by a 2.1% increase in the APEI segment’s revenues, partially offset by a 2.7% decrease in Hondros College of Nursing (“HCN”) revenues.

Total costs and expenses during the quarter decreased 0.2% year over year.

Segment Discussion

APEI’s revenues of $67.1 million grew 2.1% from the year-ago period. Within the APEI segment, American Public University System’s (“APUS”) student enrollment grew 2% from the comparable year-ago period to 82,800 at March-end. During the quarter, total net course registration inched up 1% from the year-ago quarter to 84,800. Net course registrations by new students remained on par with the prior-year figure of 10,100.

At HCN, revenues decreased 2.7% year over year to $7.5 million owing to reduced enrollments. Total student enrollment at HCN dropped 9% to 1,570, while new student enrollment rose 31% from the prior-year quarter to 444.

During the quarter, inter-segment elimination totaled $17 million.

Financials

As of Mar 31, 2020, American Public had total cash and cash equivalents of $196.8 million compared with $202.7 million at 2019-end. Capital expenditure totaled $1.9 million in the first quarter compared with $1.6 million in the comparable year-ago period.

Second-Quarter 2020 Guidance

The company expects total revenues to grow 8-12% from a year ago. It anticipates earnings within 20-25 cents per share, indicating a decline from the year-ago reported figure of 30 cents.

Net course registrations by new students at APUS are expected to increase within 8-12% year over year. Total net course registrations are likely to grow 6-10% year over year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted 109.09% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, American Public Education has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, American Public Education has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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