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AWS 6/12: COVID-19 Remains a Reality for the Markets

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Friday, June 12, 2020

Everything is up this morning — stock indexes, overnight markets, oil prices. This follows a big sell-off Thursday, which posted the worst day of trading since the nightmare that was mid-March 2020. Today’s pre-market looks as if it’s filling in lots of pot holes.

Not much has changed since Thursday afternoon’s close: Import Prices for May came in better than expected: +1.0% on the headline was far better than April’s -2.6%, and the -2.4% for March. Expectations had been for a bounce-back to 0.6-0.7%. However, strip out volatile petrol costs and we see this figure shrink to +0.1%.

Exports also came back from a dire read in April: +0.5% month over month, following a big downside swing to -3.3% the previous month. Year over year, both Imports and Exports come in at -6% — a perfect illustration of the difficulties U.S. trade has seen over the past 12 months, from the U.S.-China trade war to the coronavirus pandemic to a shaky reopening of the domestic economy.

Yesterday’s sell-off had a lot to do with the re-emergence of COVID-19 cases in states that had earlier reopenings than other states. Apparently the warm weather is not helping eradicate the disease, which has shown jumps in places like Arizona, Florida and Texas. These also happen to be some of the more highly populated states of the southern portion of the U.S. As more states follow into the breach, can a new outbreak be expected in states like Wisconsin?

Worldwide, COVID-19 is not finished wreaking havoc, either. The lack of tourism in Europe has helped crush the economy there, and the new hot spot for coronavirus is now Brazil. After watching places like New York diligently fight back versus the contagion, it became easier to believe the worst of the pandemic is over. That’s not necessarily the case. Aside from a second wave experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci predict for this fall, we’re still — on a global level — not finished with the first wave yet.

But the reopening continues, albeit precariously. Workers keep mindful of social distancing, cleaning hands and surfaces, and wearing masks. We’ll exist in a different work environment for the foreseeable future, at least until a treatment or vaccine is approved.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

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