All of the major indexes closed up yesterday with the S&P adding 0.71% and making a new all-time high and close in the process. The Dow, however, was the leader with a gain of 1.03% and making a new all-time high close.

Stocks were already trading higher prior to yesterday's FOMC Minutes. And while there was little immediate impact after the release, stocks did ultimately tick up to their best levels of the day by the close.

The Minutes revealed there were a few more policymakers favoring a 25 basis point rate cut vs. 50 bps. Those leaning towards 25 bps were less sanguine about the progress on inflation and less concerned over the slowing labor market. But when it came time to voting, all but one Fed Governor (Michelle Bowman, which we had already known), voted for 50 bps.

The details were interesting. And in some sense, last week's stronger-than-expected Employment report underscored the opinions of the 25 bps camp. But for now, it doesn't seem to change anything. The Fed is still expecting to cut rates to a midpoint of 4.4% by year's end (presumably two more 25 bps cuts in November and December), and another 100 bps in 2025, which would put rates at 3.4%.

This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI – retail inflation) will also show, in hindsight, whether those more concerned or less concerned about inflation were 'more right.' But again, it likely doesn't make much difference, save for a large increase. Short of that, the expectation is still for another 25 bps cut when the Fed meets next on November 6-7. But those calling for no cut in November will grow louder.

The consensus is for the headline number to be up 0.1% m/m vs. last month's 0.2%, while the y/y rate is expected to fall to 2.3% vs. last month's 2.5%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) is expected to be up 0.2% m/m vs. last month's 0.3%. The y/y rate is expected to come in at 3.2%, in line with last month. That comes out at 8:30 AM ET.

Then tomorrow, we'll get another look at inflation with the Producer Price Index (PPI – wholesale inflation) report.

In other news, yesterday's MBA Mortgage Applications slipped by -5.1% w/w with purchases down -0.1%, and refi's down -9.3%.

And Wholesale Inventories were up 0.1% m/m vs. last month's 0.2% and views for the same.

In addition to today's CPI report, we'll also get Weekly Jobless Claims, the Treasury Buyback Announcement, and the Treasury Buyback Results. We'll also hear from Fed policymakers Lisa Cook, Thomas Barkin, and John Williams as they speak at their respective engagements throughout the day.

On a separate note, Hurricane Milton is on everyone's mind today. Hopefully the rescue efforts are as successful as can be. And the cleanup is swift.

See you tomorrow,