Thursday, March 16th, 2023
We have another busy day in the pre-markets in terms of economic reports, though with anxiety over the global banking system and a pending Fed decision on interest rates next week will likely cast a large shadow over the proceedings. Ahead of the metrics being reported, the Dow is -42 points, the S&P 500 is +0.32 (basically unchanged from yesterday’s close) and +35 points on the Nasdaq. Will we stay flat, as we’ve seen over the past week, or move somewhere else?
Initial Jobless Claims dropped back below 200K again last week — a psychological level which depicts a healthy overall labor market — to 192K, from 205K expected and a slight upward revision to 212K the previous week. That 212K number is the highest read going back to late December, while today’s number is the lightest we’ve been on new jobless claims in three weeks.
Continuing Claims also dipped below a psychological level — in this case, 1.7 million longer-term jobless claims two weeks ago (a week in arrears from new claims) — to 1.684 million from a slightly downwardly revised 1.7134 million the previous week. In either instance of these weekly jobless claims figures, as long as we’re sub 250K on the Initial side and sub-2 million on Continuing, it’s hard to make the argument that U.S. employment is showing any signs of strain.
Import Prices for February came in a hair better than expected: -0.1% versus -0.2% projected. The -0.2% last month has been revised to only incrementally down, basically 0.0%. Ex-petroleum prices, this metric falls to -0.4%, the largest month-over-month decline since last July. Year over year, we see an in-line -1.01%, while Exports buoyed to +0.2% last month, -0.8% year over year. Measured, incremental moves in global trading? Considering where we are otherwise, we’ll take it.
Housing Starts for the month of February came in notably stronger than expected, posting 1.450 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units — well off the 1.31 million predicted and the slightly upwardly revised 1.32 million from January, which still represents a cycle low. This is the best headline print since September of last year.
Building Permits — a proxy for future Starts — also ramped up, to 1.524 million from 1.34 million expected, off an unchanged 1.34 million the previous week. This is again the highest print since September, and is the second-straight upward move off cycle lows.
Finally. Philly Fed for March depicts largely what Empire State did earlier this week: show goods-producing productivity continually flagging. A headline of -23.2 is a deeper cut than the -15.5 anticipated, but a smidge of an improvement from the -24.3 posted for February. The Empire State metric was -24.6, meaning in the sixth-largest city in the U.S., Philadelphia, and the fourth-largest state in the Union, New York, we’re seeing challenges in more or less real time.
Pre-markets have slid since these numbers have been released. Currently, we’re trading negative across the board: -150 points on the Dow, -15 on the S&P and -17 on the Nasdaq. Again, it’s the questions surrounding banking issues, both at home and abroad (while we await an interest rate decision from the ECB shortly), which are clouding the perceptions of market participants. We may find ourselves in a similar position at least until the Fed makes its decision on domestic interest rates next Wednesday.
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Jobless Claims, Import Prices, Philly Fed All Lower
Thursday, March 16th, 2023
We have another busy day in the pre-markets in terms of economic reports, though with anxiety over the global banking system and a pending Fed decision on interest rates next week will likely cast a large shadow over the proceedings. Ahead of the metrics being reported, the Dow is -42 points, the S&P 500 is +0.32 (basically unchanged from yesterday’s close) and +35 points on the Nasdaq. Will we stay flat, as we’ve seen over the past week, or move somewhere else?
Initial Jobless Claims dropped back below 200K again last week — a psychological level which depicts a healthy overall labor market — to 192K, from 205K expected and a slight upward revision to 212K the previous week. That 212K number is the highest read going back to late December, while today’s number is the lightest we’ve been on new jobless claims in three weeks.
Continuing Claims also dipped below a psychological level — in this case, 1.7 million longer-term jobless claims two weeks ago (a week in arrears from new claims) — to 1.684 million from a slightly downwardly revised 1.7134 million the previous week. In either instance of these weekly jobless claims figures, as long as we’re sub 250K on the Initial side and sub-2 million on Continuing, it’s hard to make the argument that U.S. employment is showing any signs of strain.
Import Prices for February came in a hair better than expected: -0.1% versus -0.2% projected. The -0.2% last month has been revised to only incrementally down, basically 0.0%. Ex-petroleum prices, this metric falls to -0.4%, the largest month-over-month decline since last July. Year over year, we see an in-line -1.01%, while Exports buoyed to +0.2% last month, -0.8% year over year. Measured, incremental moves in global trading? Considering where we are otherwise, we’ll take it.
Housing Starts for the month of February came in notably stronger than expected, posting 1.450 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units — well off the 1.31 million predicted and the slightly upwardly revised 1.32 million from January, which still represents a cycle low. This is the best headline print since September of last year.
Building Permits — a proxy for future Starts — also ramped up, to 1.524 million from 1.34 million expected, off an unchanged 1.34 million the previous week. This is again the highest print since September, and is the second-straight upward move off cycle lows.
Finally. Philly Fed for March depicts largely what Empire State did earlier this week: show goods-producing productivity continually flagging. A headline of -23.2 is a deeper cut than the -15.5 anticipated, but a smidge of an improvement from the -24.3 posted for February. The Empire State metric was -24.6, meaning in the sixth-largest city in the U.S., Philadelphia, and the fourth-largest state in the Union, New York, we’re seeing challenges in more or less real time.
Pre-markets have slid since these numbers have been released. Currently, we’re trading negative across the board: -150 points on the Dow, -15 on the S&P and -17 on the Nasdaq. Again, it’s the questions surrounding banking issues, both at home and abroad (while we await an interest rate decision from the ECB shortly), which are clouding the perceptions of market participants. We may find ourselves in a similar position at least until the Fed makes its decision on domestic interest rates next Wednesday.
Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>>