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Markets Mixed on Manufacturing & Construction Data
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Monday, June 3rd, 2024
After greeting the opening bell in the green across the board, we finish this session mixed. The Dow slipped -149 points, -0.39%, on weakness in early morning manufacturing and construction reports compared to expectations, and Energy, Industrials and Materials were all down for the day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq got a boost from NVIDIA’s (NVDA - Free Report) unveiling of new A.I. chips over the weekend, which finished +5% (the full Nasdaq was +0.56% today). The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 finished +0.10% and -0.54%, respectively.
S&P Manufacturing PMI for May came in somewhat higher than expected earlier today. A headline of 51.3 was more than half a point higher than the consensus estimate of 50.7, as well as the previous month’s release of 50.9. We haven’t seen a Manufacturing PMI print sub-50 since December of last year, which is positive: a reading of 50 or higher connotes growth, whereas under the 50 threshold indicates loss.
ISM Manufacturing PMI for May was a different story. It’s print of 48.7% was nearly a full point below expectations for 49.6%, as well as the prior month’s unrevised 49.2%. Notably, all these figures are below the 50 threshold, so today’s manufacturing data as a whole is officially mixed. That said, this metric has been consistently softer than its S&P counterpart: the only month in the past 12 to come in above 50 was March’s 50.3%.
Construction Spending, for April this time, also came in light. Although it’s +10% year over year, this headline print reached -0.1% for the month, 30 basis points (bps) below the +0.2% expected, although still a step in the right direction from March’s -0.2%. Non-residential construction — a read on enterprise office spaces, etc. — has been coming down fast over the past several months, and is now dow to its lowest point in more than two years.
The rest of this week will provide us with jobs data. However, manufacturing and construction prints do give us a glimpse into part of the employment picture, as well as the overarching economic reality. And generally softer data points here allude to a slow-down, which is essential for the Fed to at last consider lowering interest rates from their current 5.25-5.50% range. Next week the Fed meets for its fourth FOMC meeting of the year so far. Interest rates have kept steady since they were last raised in July of 2023.
Tomorrow morning, after the opening bell, JOLTS data comes out for April. This stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which neatly explains the metrics that exist within the report. Job openings are expected to come down to 8.4 million for the month from 8.5 million last report. That said, the number of unemployed persons per job opening in March grew to +0.8%, which was the highest rate since August of 2021 — the foothills toward the end of peak Covid.
Image: Bigstock
Markets Mixed on Manufacturing & Construction Data
Monday, June 3rd, 2024
After greeting the opening bell in the green across the board, we finish this session mixed. The Dow slipped -149 points, -0.39%, on weakness in early morning manufacturing and construction reports compared to expectations, and Energy, Industrials and Materials were all down for the day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq got a boost from NVIDIA’s (NVDA - Free Report) unveiling of new A.I. chips over the weekend, which finished +5% (the full Nasdaq was +0.56% today). The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 finished +0.10% and -0.54%, respectively.
S&P Manufacturing PMI for May came in somewhat higher than expected earlier today. A headline of 51.3 was more than half a point higher than the consensus estimate of 50.7, as well as the previous month’s release of 50.9. We haven’t seen a Manufacturing PMI print sub-50 since December of last year, which is positive: a reading of 50 or higher connotes growth, whereas under the 50 threshold indicates loss.
ISM Manufacturing PMI for May was a different story. It’s print of 48.7% was nearly a full point below expectations for 49.6%, as well as the prior month’s unrevised 49.2%. Notably, all these figures are below the 50 threshold, so today’s manufacturing data as a whole is officially mixed. That said, this metric has been consistently softer than its S&P counterpart: the only month in the past 12 to come in above 50 was March’s 50.3%.
Construction Spending, for April this time, also came in light. Although it’s +10% year over year, this headline print reached -0.1% for the month, 30 basis points (bps) below the +0.2% expected, although still a step in the right direction from March’s -0.2%. Non-residential construction — a read on enterprise office spaces, etc. — has been coming down fast over the past several months, and is now dow to its lowest point in more than two years.
The rest of this week will provide us with jobs data. However, manufacturing and construction prints do give us a glimpse into part of the employment picture, as well as the overarching economic reality. And generally softer data points here allude to a slow-down, which is essential for the Fed to at last consider lowering interest rates from their current 5.25-5.50% range. Next week the Fed meets for its fourth FOMC meeting of the year so far. Interest rates have kept steady since they were last raised in July of 2023.
Tomorrow morning, after the opening bell, JOLTS data comes out for April. This stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which neatly explains the metrics that exist within the report. Job openings are expected to come down to 8.4 million for the month from 8.5 million last report. That said, the number of unemployed persons per job opening in March grew to +0.8%, which was the highest rate since August of 2021 — the foothills toward the end of peak Covid.
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