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Pre-Markets Down Again; Trade Deficit and Dick's Q2 Improve

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Wednesday, September 4th, 2024

This big day for stock market news comes tomorrow and Friday, with jobs numbers from ADP (ADP - Free Report) and Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday and a new Employment Situation report for August to end the week. We’ll also see earnings numbers for Broadcom (AVGO - Free Report) tomorrow afternoon.

Ahead of the opening bell this Hump Day, we’re negative across the board in pre-markets again: the Dow is -80 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is -20 and the Nasdaq -130 points. This after a big step down in the stock market yesterday. Can today’s data turn things around?
 

U.S. Trade Deficit Better than Expected


Though we see a Trade Deficit at -$78.8 billion for the month of July, it’s better than the -$79.1 billion expected. The previous month, -$73.1 billion, was the lowest we’d seen since March, but we’re now a ways lower than the -$59.6 billion reported in August last year.

Exports grew by +0.5%, even with less demand for big-ticket items like passenger vehicles, but Imports grew much faster, at +2.1%. The China deficit, at -$27.2 billion, was a deeper cut than expected, and the trade gap with Canada widened. We’re thankfully still off the -$101 billion lows from March of 2022, but we’d like these numbers to trim going forward.
 

Dick’s Sporting Goods Outperforms


Q2 earnings for retailers continue to trickle in, with Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS - Free Report) once again outpacing expectations this morning. Earnings of $4.37 per share blew past the $3.77 in the Zacks consensus, and far surpassing the $2.82 per share reported in the year-ago quarter), for a positive earnings surprise of +16%.

Revenues of $3.47 billion beat estimates by +1.22% in the quarter, ahead of the $3.22 billion reported a year ago. The Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated stock is up +58% year to date, which explains why shares are selling the news -1.5% this morning, even with raised guidance. For more on DKS’ earnings, click here.
 

Dollar Tree Sinks Further on Q2 Earnings Miss


For discount retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR - Free Report) , it’s quite a different story. Earnings of 67 cents per share missed the $1.03 Zacks consensus by -35%. Revenues of $7.37 billion missed expectations by -1.74%, though are up slightly from the $7.33 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.

Shares are down in today’s pre-market by -11% at this hour. This adds to the crushing -42.5% the stock has suffered year to date. Whereas a perceptibly weakening economy ought to be a boon for discounters like Dollar Tree and Dollar General (DG - Free Report) , which is also down -40% year to date, currently everyone’s lunch is being eaten by Walmart (WMT - Free Report) , +45% year to date. For more on DLTR’s earnings, click here.
 

What to Look For in Today’s Stock Market News


The biggest report in terms of tracking stock market momentum today is this morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for July. While the headline is expected to come in slightly lower from June to 8.1 million job openings for the month, there are finer articulations under the hood of this report.

The Fed, in particular, will be looking for the ratio of job vacancies per unemployed person. This had been at an historically high +2.0 a couple years ago — meaning there were two job openings for everyone looking for a job — and has come down to a much slimmer +1.2 as of June. Also, Job Quits have been down to +2.1% over the past couple months, well off the +3.0% we were seeing in the spring of 2022.

We’ll also get a new Beige Book from the Fed this afternoon, which tracks economic growth in 12 key cities — those with Federal Reserve offices — across the country. Slight increases or flat month-over-month have been what we’ve seen recently; in the June report, only Minneapolis posted lower economic activity.

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